News of India’s Foreign Secretary Mr. Shiv Shankar Menon rushing to Myanmar immediately after a visit to New Delhi by the UN Special Envoy Mr. Ibrahim Gambari was followed by that of Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar, the peripatetic Indian Minister in charge of the North East voyaging down the Kaladan River. While Mr. Menon was probably attempting to broker Gambari’s visit to Naypyidaw or Yangon, wherever the stodgy Junta chiefs would like to meet him, Mr. Aiyar was sending a clear signal of India’s intention of creating a passage to the North East through Sittwe and Kaladan. New Delhi’s new found confidence immediately after the Prime Minister declaring that Arunachal Pradesh was India’s land of the rising sun would have been noted in the corridors of power globally.

Perhaps the good omen for the mission of the Secretary and the Minister are already evident, with the military junta ordering referendum on the new Constitution in May 2008 and elections in 2010. Yet skeptics doubt the good intention of the regime which continues to hold a tight rein over democratic aspirations of the people.

Of the two missions, the Foreign Secretary may face the tougher challenge. A call by the UN, for greater engagement and pressure by the international community, on China and India, to veer the regime towards democracy has not made a major impact on Myanmar’s rulers so far. Thus, active engagement with the military junta in Myanmar by the UN, has had marginal influence in according greater freedom to Aung Suu Kyi and releasing detainees held on political grounds. This despite the fact that government negotiator, First Secretary of the Myanmar State Peace and Development Council [former Maj-Gen] Aung Kyi meeting her on 11 January for the third time.

Commenting on the meeting, Aung Kyi stated, “We made progress at the meetings. The first meeting was aimed at gaining understanding between us. The second meeting was to discuss frameworks for the future. The third meeting was to discuss the facts that should be included in the framework.” “We will release information related to the meetings when necessary,” he said. “Regarding the time frame, we will continue to hold meetings with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. We need to consider what to discuss and why. We are choosing ‘What’ and ‘Why.’ So, we will take ‘Where,’ ‘How’ and ‘When’ into consideration in the future.”

Suu Kyi was also permitted to meet her party leaders for the first time on 30 January. Yet she held out little hope of reconciliation by the military junta. “Let’s hope for the best and prepare for the worst,” she was quoted as saying by National League for Democracy (NLD), spokesman Nyan Win after the meeting. Thus the road to a political understanding appears to be long and steep.

Political dissension was spread on the streets in the form of bomb blasts and protests against the junta in Central Myanmar. There were four explosions in one week, killing three civilians and injuring five others. The first blast occurred on January 11, at Naypyidaw’s (the new capital) railway station, while another on 16 January, occurred in a bus. The blasts, as per the administration, were triggered by dissident militiamen, Karen National Union (KNU) and an unspecified “foreign organization”, an euphemism possibly for the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Dissidents blamed it on the military, which wanted to increase repression in the garb of controlling violence. Rumors of poor health, of junta supremo Snr. Gen. Than Shwe were also heard in dissident circles, with a photograph showing Than Shwe being physically assisted while climbing up a pagoda.

There are many countries, including the US, which want a political change in the form of a democratically elected government to take reins before greater international economic engagement. India and China have sought to depend on continuing, rather than, conditional commitment, which could lead to political change. While it is commonly believed that China has a powerful influence in Myanmar, Beijing may not be so effective in bringing about a major change or shift in policy feel some analysts. China’s approach would also have to be watched after the Olympics, when it may take a more aggressive stance vis-a-vis the international community.

On the other hand, both New Delhi and Beijing are engaging Myanmar for the big clutch of resources in the country as well as the transit route to South East Asia. A commodities consultant in Bangkok, Collin Reyonlds stated, “Several Burmese state agencies are working with the Chinese, on possible road and rail links from the planned deep sea port, on the central Burmese coast at Kyauk Phyu. These are seen as complimentary to an oil pipeline, which is almost certain to be laid between the port and Kunming in China’s neighboring Yunnan province.” While India is seeking a road to South East Asia , as well as, activating the Second World War' Ledo' route which connected India with China, Myanmar Airways International (MAI) is extending flights to India.

Can India succeed where China has not attained much so far. Ibrahim Gambari, sounded optimistic, "I have asked for help from India on the following issues: to help us source more information from Myanmar; to work as a reliable and influential conduit for important messages to and from the Myanmar government; help regularize my visits to Myanmar." Let us hope Mr. Menon’s suave diplomacy is able to swing the pendulum towards greater freedom for the people of Myanmar in the days to follow after facilitating the UN envoys visit. As for Mr. Aiyar’s trip down the Kaladan, perhaps Dacca which has been denying a passage to India through its territory on flimsy grounds may be alarmed and hopefully have a change of heart, for an Indo Bangladesh rapprochement would avoid the need for the Kaladan route altogether. 

February 10, 2008

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