The turmoil in Pakistan over the past few months has sidelined other countries in South Asia including one which is under Emergency rule for the past one year, Bangladesh. While a year is not too long a period in the history of a country, an administration which has vowed to reclaim the nation from the abyss of chaos witnessed in January 2007 within two years has already spent half the period in Dacca.

The Caretaker Administration (CA) in Bangladesh has in a way admitted its failure on many fronts recently with replacement of five advisers who were considered non performing. The newly inducted advisers included former attorney general AF Hassan Ariff, planning expert Hossain Zillur Rahman, retired bureaucrat AMM Shawkat Ali, former National Security Intelligence chief retired Major General Golam Kader and NGO activist Rasheda K Chowdhury. Political parties and observers blamed the CA supported by the Army for many problems in the country including food shortages and slow growth rate of the economy.

On political front, the Awami League attempted to raise the ante with threats of publicizing a CA report card and demand for elections in July, however, later the tone was lowered. The Party expressed willingness to talk to the government, even as Sheikh Hasina’s trial commenced after many false alarms. With the plaintiff Azam J Chowdhury refusing to identify former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, standing in the dock, as accused in his deposition in the Tk 2.99 crore extortion case, government counsels were stunned, throwing another spanner in the government designs to rein in the prima Donna. The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader, Begum Khaleda also gave a call for unity within her party. The government is considering a proposal for sending two detained former Prime ministers – Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia — abroad, for ‘better treatment’ but given their obduracy the same is unlikely to materialize.

Political parties called for talks with the administration to be unconditional, thereby creating a conducive environment for holding national elections. This will take place once the ban on political activities is removed and state of emergency revoked. The chief adviser, Fakhruddin Ahmed, indicated at Davos that the state of emergency would be eased gradually .He sought greater responsibility by political parties. A more positive attitude taken by the Awami League, towards the CA, indicates signs of some compromise in political activities in the days ahead. While ideally, a political consensus between the Awami League and the BNP, in negotiating with the government, would considerably assist in smooth negotiations, this appears unlikely at present.

Agitation by students and teachers of Dacca and Rajshahi University seeking release of colleagues, implicated in the 21 August violence at the campus was also in focus recently. There was considerable increase in political activity with students of Dacca University holding a number of protests. The Caretaker Administration partially relented, going soft on students and teachers. Four teachers were released on 22 January and three students on 23 January. The government release came after a Dhaka court acquitted four University teachers and 11 students of the charges but jailed four students, for two years in connection with 21 August 2007 campus protests. The release of the students should ease the atmosphere in the country, which would have faced a major agitation if the events were not controlled through a government come down. It is not clear if the government genuinely wants to assuage the sentiments of the students or is trying to stave off the crisis temporarily.

Law and order is also a matter of concern with militants of the Allahr Dal, reportedly regrouping in south western part of the country in Kushtia, Meherpur and Chuadanga districts. The Sundarbans area, which had been quiescent after the Bangladesh Rifles had established camps there, is once again falling prey to piracy by Masum Bahini, Raju Bahini, Motaleb Bahini and Baki Billah Bahini. “Phone” gangs, organized criminal networks extorting money from businessmen and traders have made a come back in Dacca. The Rajshahi court sentenced seven militants of outlawed Jama'atul Mujahideen, Bangladesh (JMB) to life imprisonment for the bomb blasts in Chapainawabganj on August 17 in 2005. This may have a salutary impact on controlling extremism in the country.

The steep rise in food prices is also worrying. The minimum price for coarse rice rose to Tk 32 (45Cents) a kg from Tk 25 (35 Cents) in the beginning of the month. A joint task force, formed to control the prices, succeeded in temporarily checking the same, but fresh crisis is anticipated in the days ahead. Slow down in the economy also impacted the main export industry, garments, resulting in an agitation by garment workers. Thus on 14 January, garment workers went on a rampage in Dacca’s Mirpur area, causing damage to five garment factories and a number of vehicles.

Dhaka, at the last moment postponed the first BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) ministerial meeting, being held in Dhaka, on 09 and 10 January, because of poor response from members, given the political turmoil in the respective states. BIMSTEC comprises of Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Thailand.

This would have given the CA a good forum to demonstrate one of its major achievements, in foreign affairs, during the past one-year. Relations with all its neighbors including India have improved, as the CA has adopted conciliatory policies, casting away isolationist proclivities of the previous governments, which had prevented the country from effectively integrating with the global and international community.

An early return of functional democracy in Bangladesh may lead to greater responsiveness of the government towards the people. Yet this may take the end of 2008 to fructify, hopefully the Begums of Dacca are adequately chastened to lead the country towards development if either of them returns to power.

February 24, 2008

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