A change in the power structure in Pakistan in the near future is an ideal backdrop to debate New Delhi’s relationship with Islamabad. Many analysts have called for expanding Indo Pakistan rapprochement to arrive at a solution in Kashmir. The situation in the Valley is reaching an impasse, as the level of violence has steadily decreased and there is a need for tangible political spin offs from the counter militancy dividend.

Pakistan has no doubt a role to play in Kashmir. While Musharraf had engaged New Delhi for over two years and achieved much, building upon this process is dependent on a number of factors. One of course is the emerging strategic structure in Pakistan. The army chief’s plan to surrender space to civil forces and the thumping victory by opposition parties denotes that for some time to come there would be greater equity in the power matrix in Islamabad dictated by the relationship between the President, the political parties and the Army.

This may even turn in favor of the Party in power in case the move for removal of President Musharraf gains momentum. However the situation is not clear at present and it would be safer to presume that there is a healthy relationship between the President and the National Assembly which Musharraf seems to have assured his mentors in Washington. All this should hopefully lead to greater political stability in Pakistan than that witnessed over the past few years.

The second issue is determining the Kashmir policy of the PPP as well as other parties which will form part of the coalition government and some as PML Nawaz who may support it from outside. The election campaign in Pakistan was fought on internal issues primarily focusing on President Musharraf and the ruling PML Q’s political and economic failings and rise of extremism which culminated in the assassination of Benazir. Thus the PPP would have to define its Kashmir policy and state support to terrorism. Preliminary scrutiny based on assertions by some leaders on the “Kashmir Solidarity Day” does not indicate any major shift particularly in shutting off the tap of terror. Chaudhry Yaseen, secretary general of the PPP in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir was one of the key protestors in Muzaffarabad on that day.

Recently Kashmiri separatist leaders, Geelani and Shabir Shah addressed a conference of Jamat-ud-Dawah the political root of Lashkar e Taiyyaba led by Hafiz Sayeed in Lahore, indicating no restraint exercised by the government. Sayyed has expressed pan Indian and not just Kashmir centric designs of spreading terror which have also manifested in numerous strikes in the hinterland in 2007. Reports of Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammad training in camps in Peshawar are also indicative of continued support or at best lack of control of Pakistan government on these groups which are inimical to India’s security. Thus engaging Pakistan without any clear assertion on control of terrorism and not just token participation in Joint Counter Terrorism panel or a supposedly tactical freeze may prove pointless.

In the final count, India’s call on early dialogue with the new power dispensation in Islamabad will have to be based on signs of a fundamental shift in Pakistan’s basic policy of strategic depth through control in Afghanistan in the West and instability in Kashmir and other areas of India. Such a change if envisaged will take time to manifest. Arguably a policy of wait and watch may take us into political uncertainty in New Delhi, with general elections due in normal course in 2009. Yet a cautious approach may be better and provide the new government in Pakistan some time to crystallize its policy on Kashmir and support to terrorism tacit or other wise against India.

New Delhi could indicate its priorities in these and other issues governing Indo Pakistan relations including trade thereby setting the agenda for deeper engagement of Islamabad based on sound fundamental principles of inter state discourse which has no place for a strategy of destabilization. More over elections in Jammu and Kashmir this year may provide additional windows of opportunity for internal regrouping of political forces in the Valley. A broad consensus on Kashmir and tangible evidence of cutting off support to terrorism by the new government in Pakistan is essential before India decides its broad policy on Kashmir.

March 2, 2008

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