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Analysis
Nepal : Maoist
Must Reclaim Shangri La
By
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
Nepal’s scenic country side is complimented by cheery, fun loving
people, making the country a must for tourists across the World. Yet the
elites of Nepal be it monarchs or ministers have been letting down the
country over the past half a century of so. Wracked by palace intrigues,
excesses of the feudal classes and apathy for the masses, the Maoist
insurgency was inevitable. Given the heavy loss of lives over 13,000, the
sacrifice made by the people can build a new Nepal if the Communist Party of
Nepal, Maoists honor the electoral mandate and reclaim Nepal’s rightful
place in the global tourism hierarchy as the original Shangri La.
There is no doubt many qualms after the surprise victory of the Maoists.
Many had laid bets on their fellow Left party the CPN Unified Marxist
Leninist or UML to sweep the hustings. Explaining the Maoist victory, Kanak
Mani Dixit, editor of Himal noted, "The Maoists promised the Earth to poor,
marginalized people and also ran a country-wide campaign of fear and
intimidation to win the elections." CPN (Maoist) senior leader Dr Baburam
Bhattarai on the other hand stated, “We targeted the underprivileged,
marginalized section of society, including women. We empowered those groups
of society and were successful to secure such result.” To what extent the
victory of the Maoists is attributable to coercion is not clear so far,
however Nepal should hopefully see replication of good governance if the
Maoists follow the example of Indian states as Tripura and West Bengal where
Left parties have been dominating the government for the past many decades.
CPN M leader, Dr Bhattarai said, “Everybody must accept that we, being the
largest political party, have the right to lead the next government”. While
the CPN M has emerged as the largest party, it is obvious that it would have
to work in coalition with the other two main parties, the CPN UML and the
Nepal Congress. This is likely to result in extensive jockeying for
positions in the Nepali political space with the Maoists, the Nepal Congress
and the CPN UML attempting to maximize their advantage and attempt to seek a
change in the government post elections in the next phase. The Madhesi Forum
is also likely to have a large say having won a sizeable chunk of seats from
the Madhes region. Thus the government formation is likely to be a result of
a long process of conciliation by all sides.
The Nepal Congress has very sensibly demanded that the Maoists should put an
end to the violence and ensure that all past agreements are implemented.
While the central leadership of the Party may be willing to do so, it is not
so far clear, if the cadres will be willing to obey the central leadership,
thereby creating a doubt which has led to such conditions by the Congress.
The Maoists must display their sincerity to break this impasse.
The CPN M leadership despite their overwhelming victory seemed to be aware
of the complexities as Prachanda, said, “An agreement between the major
political forces is essential. As the people have bestowed us with a major
responsibility through the polls, we need to appeal to the other major
parties, especially the NC and CPN-UML, for the formation of a joint
government to take forward the country.” Nepal requires political consensus
to come out of the black hole of economic stagflation which is spread over a
period of ten years. The growth of the Nepalese economy has been negative in
this period. A conciliatory polity alone between all political constituents
including the Madhes parties will facilitate the country to come of this
quagmire.
For the
Maoists to transit from the gun to the debate in resolution of economic and
political issues in the country is likely to be a difficult process. This is
particularly so for the large number of cadres spread throughout the
country. Under the circumstances the ability of the central leadership to
keep these forces under control needs to be seen. While expecting immediate
stability in political and law and order situation in Nepal may be over
optimistic, there could be reasonable modicum of order at least in cities as
Kathmandu. The Madhes region however will continue to be turbulent in the
days ahead.
The most contentious issue is the process of integration of the Nepal Army
and the PLA which is not likely to be smooth. There may be requirement of a
neutral force as the UNMIN for a further period of six months to one year as
the Nepal Army till recently did not seem to be amenable to come under a
government led by Prachanda or Bhattarai. In a meeting held on 15 April
however the Joint Monitoring Coordination Committee (JMCC) comprising the
Maoists, Nepal Army and United Nations, Nepal Army Brigadier General Sihva
Ram Pradhan said that the Nepal Army will completely obey the directions of
the next government. Pradhan also stated that Nepal Army has always been
working under the government’s directives.
The question of declaration of the country as a republic is likely to be
settled during the first sitting of the CA. Dr Bhattarai indicated the other
complexity of the type of system, Presidential or Prime Minister when he
stated, “We must reach a political consensus because the constitution would
need to be amended to set up a presidential system. Unless we have a
political consensus, we can’t amend the constitution. So, we can’t simply go
for an executive president. In case of political differences, we may have to
follow the present form of governance”. Rumors are already afloat of
Prachanda taking over as the Prime Minister with G P Koirala as the
President. This would be a good compromise provided all parties are willing
to work towards its success. The CPN UML which has perhaps lost the maximum
particularly as its General Secretary Nepal could not win in the hustings
and the MPRF may act as spoilers. The MPRF has already indicated that it
would want the Terai to be one province rather than the federal system
favoured by other parties based in the hills.
The economy should be the greatest concern for the new government. While
Bhattarai indicated that, there was no dearth of resources, support in
technology and skills building was essential, “ We need foreign investments.
I am sure if we really work together, we can achieve rapid economic growth
in a short span of time”. But the ultimate test would be political stability
as Dr Bhattarai said, “What we need right now is political stability. We
cannot think of rapid economic growth sans political stability. Now the CA
results have given some hope for political stability. Secondly, there must
be a strong leadership. Above all, we have yet to start restructuring the
state”
There is no doubt that the problems in Nepal are many but in the final
analysis, Maoist victory in Nepal provides them an historic opportunity of
building an egalitarian society, the dream of every communist and take Nepal
on the path of development and prosperity. Prachanda and Bhattarai hopefully
are as good statesmen as they have been guerrilla leaders.
May 11, 2008
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