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Analysis
Terror Strikes
are Preventable
By
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
Conventional wisdom has us believe that terror events cannot be normally
prevented. Thus breaking out of the interminable cycle of terrorism is
appearing increasingly difficult for the Indian state. Yet ironically terror
acts are preventable as well as predictable. The United States has been
singularly successful in preventing a repeat of 9/11 on the Home Land.
Britain, Germany and Denmark have done well to intercept terrorist modules
before they could act. We need to draw useful lessons from these success
stories and attempt to replicate the same. A few salient issues are flagged
herein.
The key to countering terrorism is political consensus. While the Democrats
may disagree with George W Bush’s policy on Iraq, there is basic consensus
in the United States on the need to focus on a holistic approach to
combating growth, sustenance and manifestation of terrorism within the
country and abroad. This consensus is sadly lacking in India as is evident
with polarization in the aftermath of Jaipur, where the debate has shifted
to POTA and Ms Sonia Gandhi’s visit to the Pink City, rather than a joint
centre-state approach to combating terrorism. The horizontal political
divide is supplemented by a vertical administrative one between the centre
and the state. A combination of this effect is seen in the case of SIMI,
wherein despite ban under Unlawful Activities Prevention Act 1967, some
states are even now reluctant to take action against it.
Another important facet is acknowledging terrorism as a strategic threat
targeting identity of our country as a pluralistic nation with composite
culture. Today terrorism is not just impacting the geographic or identity
margins of the country but its heart, the political seat of power, Delhi,
the commercial capital Mumbai, the IT hub, Bangalore, the religious node of
Varanasi and now the tourist centre of Jaipur. This strategic attack can no
longer be tackled by episodic half measures but needs a focused response
from the State which is all inclusive. An expert committee on the lines of
the post Kargil Subrahmanyam Committee needs to be formed to examine the
threat and our response so far and suggest measures thereof.
Profiling terrorism as a strategic issue would also facilitate greater
involvement of the masses both through moral condemnation and constant
vigilance to support the police. Awareness will breed cooperation and
patience to undergo the rigors of body check, support intrusive KYC rules by
banks to target money laundering, reporting of unattended objects and record
visitors to cyber cafes. These seemingly small acts will contribute
immensely to the counter terrorism effort.
Lack of a scientific study of terrorist activities in the country also
implies that strikes, their locations and magnitude have not been
anticipated. Studies undertaken in Britain and the United States have
established that terrorist acts being random, “black swan”, extreme events
follow power laws and not bell curves. Black swan events also denote that
their very unexpectedness creates conditions for them to occur. Jaipur which
fobbed intelligence agencies validates this theory. When applied to the
Indian context it would imply that in areas where militancy is prevalent,
relatively minor incidents will occur with greater frequency, while in the
hinterland, these will take place at longer intervals but with a higher
intensity.
The frequency of strikes and casualties incurred over the past year in India
would substantiate this theory. As would be evident from a look at the MHA
Annual Report 2007-08, in the hinterland a major event has occurred at an
interval of one to three months, Mecca Masjid and twin blasts in Hyderabad
on May 18, 2007 and August 25, 2007, Ajmer on October 11, 2007 and Shingar
Cinema in Ludhiana on October 14, 2007, Faizabad, Lucknow and Varanasi in
U.P. on November 23, 2007, CRPF Group Centre at Rampur (U.P.) on January 1,
2008 and now Jaipur serial blasts on May 13, 2008. The question of location
can also addressed if one maps the shadow of antagonist terrorist groups
such as the Lashkar e Taiyyaba, HUJI (Bangladesh) and SIMI which are
evidently acting in concert. Given that SIMI activists had been apprehended
in Madhya Pradesh, retaliation could have been expected in a BJP ruled
state, Rajasthan or Gujarat, where there are adequate support structures for
these organizations.
Finally it is the local police be it at Jaipur or Varanasi who have to
translate the general warnings, which Gujarat Chief Minster seems to have
dismissed as, unpredictable met reports to enhance surveillance, locate,
identify and neutralize terrorist modules and sleeper cells. For an alert
police with eye to the ground, locating such cells is routine. After
apprehension of the SIMI network in Madhya Pradesh, vigorous follow up by
other states including Rajasthan would have possibly unraveled the cells
which seem to have meticulously organized the 5/13 strikes with a success
rate of 87.5 percent.
May 26, 2008
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