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Analysis
Pakistan:
Musharraf and Army In Control
By
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
The large band of liberals who have been watching recent events in Pakistan
were delighted by the happenings in the country in the past few weeks, with
news of President Musharraf likely to board an awaiting aircraft doing the
rumor circuit in Islamabad and other regional capitals of South Asia.
Skeptics were however unmoved and continued to maintain that the old, die
hard commando would not give up so easily. Indeed military generals in
Pakistan have not been known to leave their seat of power without a fight,
for one at least, Zia ul Haque the hand of fate intervened.
Musharraf is indeed made of sterner stuff. Using his usual ploy of an
interview to a select group of journalists in Islamabad at a time when the
principal leaders in Pakistan the PPP co chair Asif Zardari and Prime
Minister, Gillani as well as his principal antagonist, Nawaz Sharif were out
of the country, he firmly stated, “I won’t resign in the current situation
... I will live and die here, there is no other way. I don’t have any house
outside Pakistan.”
He went on to dare the Assembly to impeach him, “The Constitution has the
modus operandi to impeach someone. Parliament is supreme. Whatever the
Parliament decides I will accept it,” knowing fully well that the Senate
where his favorite the King’s Party, the PML Q has the majority will scuttle
any move to remove him, the President is confident that he will survive
another few years in office. So much for the hopes of the liberals.
That in the wake of this move, the lawyers are likely to launch a major
movement in the country on 10 June may not be a concern for him, nor the
likely turbulence that may be caused in the political circles with some PPP
legislators willing to join the lawyers against their own government. Come
10 June, we may see more blood shed on Pakistan’s streets.
And there may be more blood in Kashmir as well. Despite the initial positive
signals given by Mr. Zardari, which were negated by the Army Chief himself,
no change in Pakistan’s policy on supporting militancy in Kashmir is
visible. Violation of the Cease Fire on the Line of Control just before the
visit of the Indian External Affairs Minister to Islamabad has been followed
with another incident in the sensitive Mendhar sector in the recent past
establishing a pattern.
Another credible indication was given by Mirwaiz Farooq, invited by the
Pakistan government to visit the country on 21 June. The moderate Hurriyat
Conference Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq in a recent interview to Karan
Thapar on the popular program of CNN IBN, Devil’s Advocate is reported to
have indicated in no categorical terms that Pakistan’s Kashmir policy is
hostage to the wills and wishes of the army.
"It is very difficult for any prime minister in Pakistan to come up with a
set of ideas and try to implement it on its own unless and until there is a
backing of other institutions in Pakistan," he said in the interview
circulated by the Press Trust of India and went on to add when questioned if
he was referring to the army, "In particular ... We know it for sure."
The statement by the Mirwaiz who is a moderate separatist leader of the need
to win over support of the Pakistan army to resolve the Kashmir issue is
significant denoting the heavy stakes that it has in the issue. The
political leadership even when elected in Pakistan is thus unable to turn
off the tap of militancy in Kashmir.
Now that the Pakistan army has earned for itself a respite with the numerous
deals on the Western border with the Taliban, the traditional approach of
focus on Kashmir seems to be the way ahead.
Thus the signs are ominous and while a misadventure on the Line of Control
from Pakistan is not anticipated in the days ahead, the possibility of a
major terrorist strike in Kashmir or within the country cannot be ruled out.
Is it a larger game plan of the President and the Army to indicate to New
Delhi, that it is the best bet for any negotiations on Kashmir? Sadly time
will also fail to unravel this dilemma of over six decades.
June 8, 2008
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