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Analysis
Assam’s Complex
Peace Process
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
In Assam a complex
move is on to get the ULFA to the talks table with release of commander of
the 28th Battalion of the outfit Mrinal Hazarika who had 15 cases against
him. The government did not oppose the bail plea to the dreaded terrorist
ostensibly as a confidence building measure leading to his release by the
court.
Mrinal Hazarika and Jiten Dutta, founder commander and present commander of
‘A’ and ‘C’ companies then went on to offer cease fire along with Mantu
Sonowal, Maradona, Himalay Bora, Ridip Neog, Manash Pratim Goswami, Jun
Bhuyan, Rabindra Hazarika, Rudrasingh Gogoi, Gaurav Bora and Nabajit Moran
during the month. Police sources also claimed that B company commander Sujit
Mohan and the present commander of the 28 battalion, Bijoy Das alias Bijoy
Chinese, were considering surrender. However there are no concrete
indications so far.
The A and C company commanders have however refused to surrender their arms
and will also not publicly surrender unlike some of the other ULFA leaders.
The ULFA Central leadership dismissed the Cease Fire offer by the local
units and categorically indicated that unless the Central Government was
prepared to talk on sovereignty, they would not join the peace parleys. This
was followed with a ghastly blast in Baksa district in a busy weekly market
killing six people, including three women and injuring over 80.
That there were differences between the Central leadership and commanders of
A and C Company is evident with Borah of C Company stating, “From the very
beginning, objections were raised by our central leadership, including our
commander-in-chief and chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, about our method to
settle the Indo-Assam conflict and the unilateral ceasefire. But we have
decided to go ahead with the peace process, for which we have started
building public opinion. Our sole objective is to ensure our central
leadership and the government of India sit for unconditional talks. As a
first step, we have declared the ceasefire.”
The influence of 28 Battalion has been in Upper Assam. Thus there is likely
to be little difference in level of violence in other parts of the state as
ULFA’s other units despite the large number of surrenders may not give up so
easily. Given that the ULFA battalion in Lower Assam, the 709 has not been a
part of the process of peace initiated by the unit in Upper Assam, strikes
as the one at Baksa was anticipated. The ULFA has the capability to carry
out such attacks which are low cost high gains operations wherein loss of
civilian lives leads to recompense from the government. Thus unless the
security forces as well as locals remain alert such strikes could once again
lead to limited gains from the cease fire. The central ULFA leadership on
the other hand is under the influence of the intelligence agencies in
Pakistan and Bangladesh. Thus these can be anticipated to put pressure on
them to avoid a compromise with the government in the future.
The problem in Assam as much as in other parts of the North East is that
such peace negotiations are not followed up to their logical conclusion.
Thus Cease fire arrangements are left half baked leading to creation of the
SULFA or Surrendered ULFA in the past with a mandate for operating as a
counter gang. On the other hand Cease Fire with NSCN factions has been rife
with factional fights, splitting of groups and continued fratricide.
The combined pressure of the security forces operations in Assam followed by
the diplomatic initiatives in Bangladesh has probably led to this success of
bringing some of the guerrillas over ground in Assam. The way ahead however
is fraught with risks. There are also indications that apart from the ISI
and DGFI of Bangladesh, the Chinese are also fishing in the troubled waters
of the North East. Recent reports indicate that the Indian External affairs
minister during his visit to Beijing in the first week of June, had brought
this issue to the notice of the Chinese Foreign minister. Thus these are
early days, but hopes will drive the counter militants.
Yet the complexity of the peace process does not give confidence of the
government at the centre as well as the state who have not been able to
successfully manage the peace process with Naga groups amongst many other
North East outfits to pull off the same with the ULFA. Assam may continue to
see violence though at a different scale and type with more soft targets
being victims in the near future.
July 8, 2008
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