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Analysis
Will the US
Attack Pakistan?
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
While global
attention is focused on a possible US or Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear
facility, the actual attacks may well be launched on Washington’s closest
ally in the, “War on Terror”, Islamabad. The weeks gone by has seen an
increase in this possibility which may well take the form of selective air
strikes in the Western badlands of Pakistan, the Waziristan, Khyber and
Mohmand Agency belt bordering Afghanistan followed up by targeted Special
Forces operations.
The US would avoid insertion of ground troops, given that it neither has the
resources nor the will to tackle the complex militancy in this tribal belt.
It probably also believes that it may be better for the Pakistanis to do
this part, however badly they are doing it at present.
But it can no longer wait for lack of control of the Taliban and Al Qaeda
groups in Pakistan are now directly impacting on the situation in
Afghanistan. In the past week there have been two deadly suicide bomb
attacks, one on the Indian Embassy in Kabul and another in Uruzgan in which
close to 80 people have been killed.
What is of direct concern to the United States, is the deadly attack on one
of the posts in Wanat in northeastern province of Kunar resulting in the
death of 9 soldiers and wounding 15 just yesterday, (13 July). The attack
was a deliberate fire assault on a post by militants with heavy weapons such
as mortars, rocket propelled grenades and machine guns. This demonstrated
new capacity and will in the terrorists. The support that they have across
Kunar from Pakistan has obviously buttressed their resolve to combat well
equipped and trained US forces on the ground
It is not just the US but NATO forces have been facing the heat of the
upsurge in casualties after the mix of peace deals and military operations
in Bara, alleged by some Pakistani media as the News as fake and doctored.
In the southern Helmand province for instance in the past three months of
April to June, the British encountered 150 IED attacks, almost two every
three days and had 13 casualties in June that is one every two days or so.
There are other indications of possible increase in active US engagement in
Pakistan. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen till
recently a proponent of the Thousand Ship Navy, or cooperation across the
seas, has had a difficult meeting with the Pakistan Army Chief General
Kayani, on 12 July. Dawn News seemed to indicate that Pak army chief told
Mullen that they would not accept any more air strikes and this issue is
affecting Pakistan – US relations. While this is the public stand taken by
the Chief, one would know what actually transpired in a few days if the US
stays off Pakistan which is quite unlikely.
What is certain though is that Mullen would have demanded firm action by the
Pakistani forces to ensure that security on the border was increased and
flow of Taliban into Afghanistan comes down. The Pakistani forces will not
be able to deliver, which is obvious from their performance over the past
many years now and more so with continued kidnapping and killing of security
forces by the Taliban with impunity, the writ of the militants seems to be
running high in these areas.
Pakistan’s former interior minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao never one to
mince his words, states, “There is an imminent danger of [a] US attack on
Pakistan.” While his intent was obviously to score political points, the
sentiment of lack of control leading to US intervention seems to be growing
at least in the opposition.
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi writing in the Daily Times indicates the multiple
levels of militant instability in Pakistan. In Khyber Agency, three hard
line Islamic groups are fighting each other, Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
holds sway in Waziristan and Bajaur virtually replicating the state in the
area, Swat remains under the TTP sway, while sectarian conflict is impacting
the Kurram agency. The spill over from these areas is increasingly occurring
into Eastern Pakistan including deadly suicide attacks.
Recent reports also indicate the banned groups in Sindh, Sipah-e-Sahaba
Pakistan, Sipah-e-Muhammad and Mukhtar Force raising their heads with the
serial blasts in Karachi a few days back indicative of this trend. In
Balochistan, militants fired rockets at the Bolan Express denoting that
recent moves of release of political leaders in the region may not have had
the desirable impact. Obviously the Pakistan army as well as the government
has its hands full.
With many critics talking of lack of leadership in government in Islamabad,
poor consensus on military action, incompetence of the security forces in
holistically managing the militancy, instability in Pakistan is
foreordained.
The US unlike countries as India, has the global clout as well as the
military might to conduct cross border attacks. More over US policy and
public opinion may not accept soft pedaling by the government once
casualties due to strikes by Taliban from Pakistan increase. Under the
circumstances it is inevitable, that the US will have to take strong action
which for the present may be air strikes, up scaled to Special Forces
attacks and even sporadic ground intervention.
While Pakistan may avoid this ignominy for some time through negotiations
with the TTP and others, unless the State firms up its resolve to eliminate
rather than negotiate with the militants, anarchy will rule the country’s
western borders.
July 14, 2008
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