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Analysis
Pakistan�s
Unfolding Human Tragedy
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
A major human tragedy is
unfolding in Pakistan with hundreds of men, women and children,
displaced from their homes as the Army finally launched operations
targeting the Swat Taliban in their numerous lairs in the district.
Television pictures of women carrying large trunks containing their
life�s belongings and children lined up with aluminum pots for food
denoted the human side of the battle against the Taliban in which there
are likely to be no winners.
Having denied existence of well armed and fully equipped terrorists who
are said to number 4000 in Swat alone, the Pakistan government and the
Army has imposed this tragedy upon the people, hardy peasants of
Pakhtoonwa and Waziristan. Whole villages are reported to have been
evacuated and townships of Kabal, Khwazakhela, Mingora, Charbagh, Matta,
Amankot, Kanju, Shah Dherai, Mangoltan, Peuchar abandoned as terrorist
strong points are being targeted from ground and air.
The result is a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
estimated to be almost 1 million who will have to be catered for with
half a million displaced in the past few days alone. While presence of
the UNHCR in the country may help along with a large number of NGOs and
even the Pakistan government has some sort of an expertise in handling
thousands of Afghan refugees for over two decades now. But with 1.7
million estimated Afghan refugees already in the country, this is an
added burden on Pakistani aid and refugee care agencies in the days
ahead.
It is evident however that the human tragedy is far beyond control of
the Pakistani government and the international community needs to step
in as the life of hundreds of refugees is at stake for a long period of
time. Militancies are easy to start but very difficult to end. Millions
of displaced in Pakistan may have to live in make shift tents and depend
on doles by aid agencies for many years given the poor capacity of the
Pakistani military to bring peace to their villages.
What is even more tragic is that this is just the beginning of the
operation against the Taliban in one district of Pakhtoonwa. As the
Taliban have made deep inroads and established strongholds in various
parts of the Western frontier and tribal regions, the only way to get
them out would be to launch kinetic military operations rather than hand
to hand fighting at which the Pakistani army is very weak The entire
province and Waziristan would have to be rid of the Taliban if the
government and the army are serious about the same. And that is 11
percent of Pakistani territory, so many hundreds of displaced can be
expected in the days and months ahead.
The denial of surrender of its Western provinces to the Taliban has
created this crisis for Pakistan that is likely to grow each day as the
forces make a foray from one area to another given the Government�s
determination to root out extremism as proclaimed by the Prime Minister
and supported by the Army Chief.
While the high profile tripartite summit with President Obama, Zardari
and Afghanistan�s President Karzai portrayed a common resolve observers
familiar with Pakistan�s duplicity including many US leaders remained
skeptical about what Islamabad may be actually intending to do in the
future. Like the proverbial rentier state living on the adrenalin of aid
and assistance Islamabad may just call off the operations with half
baked excuses bolstering the Taliban and leaving the refugees at the
mercy of the UNHCR.
President Obama however appears to be more forthright and will hold the
Pakistani establishment to accountability. However the Pakistani army
and the government are perhaps far too experienced to be coerced into a
posture of liability and will continue to hold its own interests
primary. At the same time it is also deft at staving off the challenge
of accountability. Thus it is likely to be a difficult time for US and
Pakistan relations in the days ahead.
More over the magnitude of the threat of the Taliban is now evident with
Swat province under full control of the TNSM affiliated to the Taliban
and many prominent leaders identified by the army. The extension to
Buner was also quite pervasive and not something which could have been
ignored or denied as the Pakistani establishment was doing for a long
time.
A key issue is that of political complicity and lack of intelligence,
thus despite knowing penetration of the Taliban in Swat all parties in
NWFP and in Islamabad seemed to support implementation of the Sharia and
the public was also kept generally in the dark. This does not bode well
for penetration of these organizations by the government and the
security and intelligence forces.
Use of air power and the stream of refugees is also an indication of the
level of penetration attained by the Taliban, thus the Army is truly
unable to carry out counter insurgency operations and had to resort to
conventional operations with use of air power.
While the operations against the Taliban are gathering momentum reports
of a large number of terrorists killed have to be sustained by a holding
operation which has to be implemented by the Army rather than striking
and then withdrawing from the area. Determination of the Pakistan Army
to continue till elimination of militancy in the region which may take a
decade or more will be tested.
Meanwhile the World would do well to prepare to support over a million
or more displaced in Pakistan during the same period.
May 10, 2009
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