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Analysis
Elections: A
Salute to the Afghan People
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
 Millions
of brave Afghans defied the Taliban to cast their ballots on 20 August
in the country's second national elections since Taliban rule. At least
26 people were killed in election-related violence. Estimated 40 to 50
percent of the country's 15 million registered voters cast ballots � far
lower than the 70 percent who voted in the presidential election in
2004. 6,202 polling centers � 95 percent of those planned were opened.
The elections
once again proved that despite the threats by the Taliban the democratic
urge of the Afghan remains strong. With Taliban declaring its intent of
disruption, protecting the electorate was difficult as 76 per cent of
the population lives in remote and electorally critical areas. As per
the Afghan interior ministry map, 10 of Afghanistan�s 364 districts are
colored black or under Taliban control and 156 are considered high risk
areas. The Taliban struck at 73 places in Afghanistan in 15 provinces,
demonstrating their reach, but the Elections went on. The Election Day
attacks killed eight Afghan soldiers, nine police and nine civilians.
The main
contestants in the Presidential elections were well known figures in
Afghan politics. While campaigning was intense, the results were said to
be determined by support of local power brokers who delivered large
blocks of votes to the candidates who wooed them. President Karzai the
incumbent is thus accused of having struck deals with disreputable
tribal leaders, including Abdul Rashid Dostum, Mohammed Qassim Fahim,
Jan Mohammad and Gul Agha Sherzai for winning over their voting blocks.
Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, a candidate of the
National Front and is part Pashtun and part Tajik. The Front is obliged
to the Tajiks and other non-Pashtuns of the Northern Alliance. Ramazan
Bashardost, a Hazara has no political affiliation. The candidate coming
in fourth as per opinion polls is Ashraf Ghani, a Pashtun has an
anthropology doctorate from Columbia University is a technocrat and a
former World Bank official, who was Karzai's finance minister between
2002 and 2004.
The United States of America, State Department release on 17 August
claimed that it did not support or oppose any particular candidate. Most
significantly it stated, � We call on candidates and their supporters to
behave responsibly before and after the elections. Finally, we look
forward to working with whomever the Afghan people select as their
leaders for the next five years�.
There was a high turnout in 70% of the provinces with reportedly good
participation in rest 30% of the country with a difficult insurgency.
"We are satisfied with the participation of our people in the
elections", the country's Interior Minister, Hanif Atmar, said at a
press conference. UN Secretary General Mr. Ban Ki-moon congratulated the
Afghan people in advance thereby indicating which way the election
credibility will be in the days ahead. NATO Secretary-General, Anders
Fogh Rasmussen, has declared Afghanistan elections "a security success".
US President Mr. Obama praised Afghans for coming out to vote thus, "I
was struck by [voters'] courage in the face of intimidation and their
dignity in the face of disorder," Mr. Obama said. "There is a clear
contrast between those who seek to control their future at the ballot
box and those who kill to prevent that from happening."
The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) said it had received 225
allegations of irregularities in the presidential and provincial council
polls. ECC Chairman Grant Kippen, addressing a news conference in Kabul,
said the complaints lodged with them included tampering with ballot
boxes, voter intimidation, multiple and proxy voting, as well as
ballot-box stuffing. Most of the complaints, some of which could affect
the outcome of the historic vote, were received from Kandahar, Ghazni,
Maidan Wardak and Kunduz provinces.
Initial outcome has shown two trends, Mr. Karzai is leading so far with
a huge margin of votes at 71 percent and there are also allegations of
major fraud and rigging. In case this trend continues and Mr. Karzai
wins in the first round, the Abdullah camp his closest rival may even
plan Iran style protest rallies in the country, though the level of
political sophistication seen in Tehran is lacking in Kabul and
democratic protests are unlikely to be as effective.
What is clear is that Mr. Karzai would have won with the support of some
tribal leaders whose credentials are dubious and he would be hostage to
them in the future. Secondly these leaders were formerly associated
mostly with the Northern Alliance, hence Pashtun support to his
re-election will be limited and Taliban may oppose him strongly.
On the other hand Mr. Karzai has shown his capacity to manage and
manipulate the politics in Afghanistan mainly based on tribal loyalties
and leadership control. This factor may provide him the necessary
impetus to win over some of the Taliban as well.
Thus with incumbent President Karzai set to return to power in Kabul, it
is time for many who did not want him to succeed press the reset button
and that includes the United States. Elections are being hailed by all
world leaders as a success including the UN Secretary General and the
Indian Minister of External Affairs, given that India is generally not
inclined to make any remarks on the internal affairs of a country.
The main problems appear to be two fold, a lower turnout would reduce
the legitimacy of the elections particularly if it is in the south, then
there is a degree of excision of the majority Pashtun community and
therefore their acceptance of the results is also suspect. On the other
hand there is a fear that the candidates particularly the losing one may
create an Iran like situation which would be inherently destabilizing
for Kabul.
�The
possibility of a Kenya or a Zimbabwe or an Iran looms large,� warned
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, �We know what the costs of those types of
outcomes are,� Ghani told POLITICO in a telephone interview from Kabul.
�And those scenarios need to be discussed and avoided, because it is
still at a moment where � with the right policies and approach and focus
� we can avoid that kind of outcome.�
The lower
turnout could also be attributed to public apathy with the Afghan
leadership mired in years of corruption and tribal power politics which
has seen the country slip into anarchy over the years despite a
relatively stable Presidency being voted in 2004 with 55 percent of the
vote
U.S. officials are also now strategizing about how to persuade Afghan
President Hamid Karzai to overhaul his government, which was viewed as
corrupt and ineffectual, if he wins a second term. They are expected to
push for stronger local and provincial councils as a counterweight to
Kabul. A similar strategy was used successfully in Iraq, where some
provincial governments were given authority and resources to address
needs of villagers who felt neglected.
In the larger
context though the election is not just a contest for Afghanistan's
powerful Presidency but one between the Taliban and the Coalition.
August 23, 2009
Image under license with Gettyimages.com
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