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Analysis
Indo Nepal
Relations: Beyond Pashupatinath Episode
by
Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
Internal politics, bilateral relations
and religion is a vicious cocktail with a dark potential for conflict of
many hues. The Pashupatinath temple episode is wrought with just such an
implication where assault on the Indian priests allegedly by Maoists in
Nepal has raised tempers in both countries. The Maoists claim that the
assault on the Bhattas or the two priests from Southern India was
launched by radicals forming part of the people’s movement for replacing
Indian priests with Nepali ones. Ironically the issue has also created a
deep cleavage between the Maoists and other parties in Nepal. This has
sadly placed Indo Nepal relations which were showing some signs of
improvement in jeopardy.
The progress in Indo Nepal relations was evident during the first visit
of the Nepal Prime Minister and UPN CML leader Mr. M K Nepal to New
Delhi from 18 to 22 August. This was also Mr. Nepal’s first visit
outside the country on taking over. His predecessor, the Unified CPN M
or Maoist leader Pushpa Kumar Dahal or Prachanda had visited China first
though he succeeded in covering it up as for Beijing Olympics rather
than an official visit. The visit by the Prime Minister Mr. Nepal was
not universally supported in Nepal, the opposition; Unified CPN M termed
it as a surrender and sell out to India, while his own Foreign Minister
Sujata Koirala refused to accompany him as allegedly she was not made
the Deputy Prime Minister before the visit. While a new trade treaty was
agreed upon, its implementation would remain to be seen.
The principal achievement was signing of the Treaty of Trade and
Agreement of Cooperation to Control Unauthorized Trade. The new
agreement will replace the existing arrangements since 1991, which was
extended from time to time. The trade treaty, which has been negotiated
for the last two years, aims at enlarging the scope of the existing
institutional framework. As per the treaty India gives duty-free access
to its market to goods manufactured in Nepal. The bilateral trade takes
place generally in Indian currency.
On the river waters issue, Indian side agreed to send a technical team
to Nepal to study the Bagmati Civilization Project, satisfaction was
expressed over timely completion of the technically challenging task of
the closure of the breach of Kosi embankment. To accelerate the
implementation of Pancheshwar Multi-purpose Project, the Joint
Ministerial Commission on Water Resources and Joint Committee on Water
Resources will expedite finalization of Terms of Reference for
Pancheshwar Development Authority and the Detailed Project Report of the
Pancheshwar Project. Progress on the Sapta Koshi High Dam and Sunkoshi
Diversion Project and the Naumure Project as per bilateral discussions
is to be expedited.
On the security front, the Bilateral Consultative Group on Security
Issues and the Home Secretaries of the two countries will meet within
two months to enhance bilateral cooperation to effectively address all
issues concerning security, including cross-border crime. One of the
major concerns India has with Nepal is the flow of fake Indian currency
to India through Nepal. The other two concerns are Nepal being used for
terrorist activities directed at India and the use of madrasas for
anti-India activities. According to estimates, four out of every
thousand Indian Rs. 1,000 denomination notes are fake and Nepal is a
major conduit for them.
Nepal-India Joint Technical Committee (JTC) is also preparing and
finalizing the boundary strip maps. For border management, construction
of two Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) at Birgunj-Raxaul and
Biratnagar-Jogbani at an estimated cost of Indian Rs.200 crores will
commence soon. India is also providing assistance at the proposed
National Police Academy at Panauti, Kavre in Nepal at an estimated cost
of Indian Rs.320 crores.
The Joint Statement issued on the occasion of the current visit of the
Prime Minister is seen to be more comprehensive and addresses a number
of key issues such as trade and development, transit as well as the
major Indo Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 which is to be
reviewed in detail later. The Prime Minister of Nepal was very emphatic
about provision of safe and secure atmosphere for trade and industry
from India in the country. However ground conditions are not very
conducive for such a purpose as the Maoists have been on a war path and
for them India is a soft target that can be swayed by their deliberate
political antics to get closer to China. Thus unless there is a
political consensus there would be many hurdles in implementing the
projections made in the Joint statement.
Thus the story of Indo Nepal relations is peculiar of love and hate.
While both countries know that they cannot live without each other,
there are many subterranean influences which have been acting against a
smooth relationship, the trade treaty is important for Nepal and so is
investment of the private sector from India. But how much would the
Nepali security and political situation permit a smooth inflow remains
to be seen, for it is observed that the current government in case of
any dispute within the political landscape over a treaty would have to
face opposition in the Parliament as well as on the streets by the
Maoists. And any successful conclusion of the trade treaty would depend
on the attitude of the Maoists as much as the government signing the
same.
Was the Pashupatinath episode a conspiracy by the Maoists to continue
with the political vacuum in the country and subvert the improving Indo
Nepal relations, only time will tell?
September 6, 2009
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