One believed that only some
kind of self-determination vote offered to the people of Kashmir would
exorcise from their minds the ghost of plebiscite. This scribe had
consistently advocated self-determination for all five segments of
undivided Kashmir which might have allowed them to choose India,
Pakistan or independence. This self-determination vote was considered
feasible on the pre-commitment that subsequently India, Pakistan and
Kashmir (whatever its status) would create an arrangement on the lines
of the European Union having joint defence and common market. President
Musharraf hinted at a somewhat similar plan dividing Kashmir into seven
segments. But events seem to have overtaken these formulations. A
devastating earthquake occurred. Nature and events conspired to create
both challenge and opportunity in Kashmir.
The earthquake virtually demolished the Line of Control (LOC) dividing
India from Pakistan. Bunkers on both sides of the LOC were destroyed
killing soldiers of both armies. The quake jolted people to a new
reality. Reliable and objective correspondents who extensively traveled
quake hit areas and moved among people have brought back a version not
adequately covered in the media. The mindset of the average Kashmiri has
fundamentally changed. For over a decade people were fed with Jihadi
tales of an imminent collapse of the Indian administration in Kashmir in
the manner of East Europe. In expectation of that Kashmiris overlooked
the subversion of their Sufi tradition by the Wahabi fundamentalism
propagated by their self-appointed saviors. Terrorism extending over a
decade ruined tourism and the substantial ancillary employment it
created. People went through untold hardship while terrorists and
security forces battled. Gradually realization was beginning to dawn on
the people. In a flash the quake and its aftermath brought that
realization to fruition. Kashmiris want to reclaim their Sufi tradition.
According to veteran Kashmir-based journalist Zafar Miraj a vast
majority of approximately 3000 Kashmiri youth who went to POK to join
militancy are disenchanted and fed up. They want to return home. Some
are seeking negotiations with the Indian government and are prepared if
necessary to serve prison sentences.
As Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) opened its doors to media and relief
organizations, people in Srinagar got access to the reality of
Muzzafarabad. They saw a dump inhabited by people living in misery. In
contrast Srinagar has an international airport. Thanks in good measure
to Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, its markets are bustling. New
buildings are coming up. Even the polluted Dal Lake finally was cleaned.
Young people are still frustrated by scant employment opportunities but
increasingly they gravitate to other Indian cities for jobs and
training. In short, India is seen as a success story. The role of the
Indian army during quake relief was an eye-opener for the people.
Kashmiris do want more self-rule. But they want neither Pakistan nor
independence. They are beginning to see a future with India.
Clearly the time is propitious for a Kashmir solution. But before being
swept away by euphoria a brief recapitulation of events would be in
order. When the British departed they gave princely states the right to
cede either to India or Pakistan. Kashmir was uniquely positioned having
borders with both countries. Maharaja Hari Singh therefore contemplated
independence. His dream was shattered when Pakistani raiders seized
Muzaffarabad on October 24, 1947. Two days later the Maharaja acceded to
India. His accession was accepted. Meanwhile on November 4th Major Brown
arbitrarily declared Gilgit part of Pakistan. This was clear indication
that Britain at the outset had decided to partition Kashmir. On January
1, 1948 India took the case to the UN. On August 13 the UN passed its
famous resolution for plebiscite in Kashmir. Conditions to implement
that were never met. On January 1, 1949 India ordered ceasefire.
For over half a century Pakistan harped on plebiscite and the right of
the Kashmiri people to self-determination. During all this time the
Indian government defensively stonewalled the issue. Recently after
President Musharraf mentioned the UN resolution while addressing the
General Assembly this year our PM and MEA expressed dismay. One is
totally mystified by the Indian stand. It is India that should have
demanded plebiscite. According to the UN resolution all Pakistani troops
were to withdraw from Kashmir. The ceding of a part of Kashmir to China
by Pakistan in 1963 violated the UN resolution. It would have to be
undone before plebiscite. Only Indian troops were to be stationed in all
of Kashmir. After they restored normalcy and peace, the plebiscite was
to be held for people to decide whether to join India or Pakistan. If
with all this the Indian government feared plebiscite, God help the
Indian people!
Pakistan is approaching its moment of truth. The truth is that Pakistan
is an artificial state bequeathed by imperialist colonialism. The
British Cabinet Mission plan was a much better proposition than the
Partition. It was foolishly rejected by the Indian leaders. In search
for a rationale to exist Pakistan followed policies that are rapidly
converting it to a failed state. That is no reason for Indians to gloat.
The survival and progress of Pakistan are vital for India’s national
interest. Only, Pakistan must be made to see that its survival is
directly linked to a stable and united South Asia.
President Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh both cryptically
remarked that the Kashmir solution lies in making borders irrelevant.
There have also been veiled references to joint control over Kashmir
with its present border unchanged but made soft to allow free movement
of people and trade. This vision is gaining popularity. Symptomatically,
former POK premier Sardar Qayoom Khan even favors Dr Karan Singh to
become Maharaja of a unified Kashmir! But all this overlooks a crucial
aspect.
How can India and Pakistan jointly oversee administration in Kashmir
without cooperation between both governments at the national level?
Which brings one back to the need for creating a South Asian arrangement
entailing joint defence and common market. If leaders of both
governments start the dialogue at that end everything else, including
settlement of the Kashmir dispute, will fall in place. Think: Membership
of the European Union by both Britain and Ireland is rendering the
Northern Ireland dispute increasingly irrelevant.
Considerable reform is required by both India and Pakistan to stabilize
their respective systems and exploit global opportunities. Not least
being the need to decentralize their systems and give states and even
local bodies more autonomy and sense of pride. That is what federal
democracy is all about. That alone would defuse tensions in Baluchistan,
NWFP and India’s northeast. But for a start a sense of security in both
nations must prevail. That is why the Kashmir problem must be addressed
by focusing on the future of South Asia rather than on the future of the
LOC.
New Delhi must keep the larger picture in mind. The prospect of
that being done appears bleak. The appointment of Ghulam Nabi Azad as
chief minister at this crucial time betrays obsession with narrow
partisan gain. The Valley could easily slip back to its old mood of
disenchantment. Just four days before Azad takes over as CM serial bomb
blasts in a major terrorist attack killed scores of shoppers in Delhi
markets. Was this the work of anti-peace-talk terrorists? If so, why
now, and why in Delhi? Do they see the induction of a Congress CM in
Kashmir as an opportunity to revive their flagging fortunes? Is this
attack a message to Kashmiris: “See? India could not tolerate a
Kashmir-based government! Delhi must directly rule Kashmir. So forget
autonomy. Fight for separation. Now onward our attacks will be focused
on India, not Kashmir!” If this conjecture is correct, will terrorist
attacks escalate across India?
The future seems murky. The government did face the challenge resulting
from the earthquake. Unfortunately, it did not seize the opportunity.
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The earthquake virtually demolished the Line of Control (LOC) dividing
India from Pakistan. Bunkers on both sides of the LOC were destroyed
killing soldiers of both armies. The quake jolted people to a new
reality. Reliable and objective correspondents who extensively traveled
quake hit areas and moved among people have brought back a version not
adequately covered in the media. The mindset of the average Kashmiri has
fundamentally changed. For over a decade people were fed with Jihadi
tales of an imminent collapse of the Indian administration in Kashmir in
the manner of East Europe. In expectation of that Kashmiris overlooked
the subversion of their Sufi tradition by the Wahabi fundamentalism
propagated by their self-appointed saviors. Terrorism extending over a
decade ruined tourism and the substantial ancillary employment it
created. People went through untold hardship while terrorists and
security forces battled. Gradually realization was beginning to dawn on
the people. In a flash the quake and its aftermath brought that
realization to fruition. Kashmiris want to reclaim their Sufi tradition.
According to veteran Kashmir-based journalist Zafar Miraj a vast
majority of approximately 3000 Kashmiri youth who went to POK to join
militancy are disenchanted and fed up. They want to return home. Some
are seeking negotiations with the Indian government and are prepared if
necessary to serve prison sentences. 