Opinion    
Elections in Israel and Palestine
New Dynamics for Peace � 3
by Sujata Ashwarya Cheema

The second development has been the long running crisis facing Fateh. Palestinian Legislative Council member Dr Hannan Ashrawi comments: �Fateh lost much of its support because it adopted a failed peace process during the 1990s. Furthermore, as the party in power, Fateh is now blamed for all the ills that plague the Palestinian Authority. This has caused popular support to shift to Hamas and other Islamic groups. Fateh needs to rapidly put its house in order to influence the outcome of the January elections.� What further weakens Fateh�s position is the recent infighting that has accompanied the primaries, resulting in its split. Fateh must stem this internal deterioration, which could sway the undecided votes away from the party, weakening its peace agenda.

A significant impact of the Palestinian elections will be the change in the nature of the Palestinian political system, shifting its source of internal legitimacy from charismatic leadership to institutions based on political participation. With the elections, the president will no longer be the Palestinian National Authority�s principal pivot, which will move to the Legislative Council, expected to operate according to parliamentary norms and contain a strong opposition. This democratic transformation will not only result in enhanced internal stability for the Palestinian society but will also result in a council more secure over the negotiating table.

The result of Palestinian election is bound to influence elections in Israel. If Hamas, which opposes a two-state solution, scores what would appear to Israelis to be significant electoral gains, thereby presumably guaranteeing its greater influence over Palestinian policymaking, this will likely damage the election prospects of the Israeli left and Labour, both of which advocate renewing peace negotiations. It could also influence the Kadima platform: Ariel Sharon currently denies any future intention to carry out another unilateral disengagement, preferring to subscribe to roadmap-based two-state concept in the hope of appealing to voters from both the left and right. Sharon could conceivably feel encouraged to abandon ambiguity and state plainly that he represents the only alternative remaining for the large majority of voters: more disengagement. On the other hand, if Fateh emerges stronger in the Palestinian elections, and Hamas weaker, Labour and two-state solution supporters might improve their position in the Israeli elections. One way or another, the two elections, and the entailed coalition-building, can be expected to create condition impacting peace process in influential ways.

Conclusion

The proximity of the two elections has created a situation, in which the participating actors in both Israel and the Palestine must enunciate, almost simultaneously, their acceptance of the sovereign national existence of the other � the key basis for a lasting peace settlement. Running on a platform of reconciliation and peace, the ruling Fatah Party envisions a two-state solution with peaceful relations between Israel and Palestine. As regards to Hamas, it participation in the democratic electoral process would diminish its functions as a rebellious armed force, impelling the Islamic party into accepting a negotiated peace agreement. In Israel today, there are central actors who support a Palestinian state. At least three parties, Labour, Meretz and Shinui, declare this in their electoral propaganda and Ariel Sharon�s Kadima party too might include such a plank in its platform. Evident substantial changes in the political arena on both sides signal that an accord based on a two-state solution bringing lasting peace just might be conceivable.  

January 8, 2006

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Top | Opinion 

The Week of January 8, 2006     
Does the Indian Government Have a Roadmap to Peace? by Rajinder Puri 
India's National Debt of Honor to The Indian Army by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Elections in Israel & Palestine : Dynamics for Peace by Sujata Ashwarya Cheema 
     Debate on this article by quoting "Telling It Like It Isn't by Robert Fisk " 
         The Debate Continues – Sujata Ashwarya Cheema Replies 
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