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Opinion
Musharraf Impeachment:
Pakistan On the Brink - Again?
by C. Uday Bhaskar
Pakistan's
long troubled politico-military calculus is again disturbingly animated
- this time with the impending impeachment of President Pervez
Musharraf, the former army chief, slated for Aug 11. Many ironies are
linked with that date, including that it is the doughty general's 65th
birthday and that this matter will be taken up by the recently elected
Pakistani legislature a month before the seventh anniversary of 9/11.
9-11, as the tragic enormity of New York's Twin Towers has come to be
known in the popular lexicon, brought terrorism, Pakistan and General
Musharraf into sharp focus. At the time, the Bush dictum was that 'if
you are not with us - you are against us'. The astute Musharraf, then
the Pakistan Army Chief who had earlier successfully toppled the prime
minister in a bloodless coup in October 1999 - made up his mind very
quickly. The Pakistani military joined the US in the global war against
terror but the people were virulently against it. Hence Musharraf's
adroit duplicity where he ran with the jehadi hare while hunting with
the US hounds.
In the last seven years Pakistan has gone through multiple turbulences
that saw the general trying to amend the constitution in his favor,
sacking the chief justice, deploying the military to flush out religious
extremists from a mosque in the heart of Islamabad and finally giving in
to the popular demand from the people to hold elections.
This return to democracy and civilian rule was marred by the
assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and the challenge
mounted by the religious rightwing who seized large swathes of territory
in the FATA and NWFP region along the Pakistan-Afghan border. The writ
of the Pakistani state and the military has been effectively challenged
in 2007 by the very same extremist Islamist constituency that the
Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) had nurtured for decades.
Post elections in February 2008, the politics of Pakistan changed
dramatically. The PPP led by Bhutto widower Asif Zardari metaphorically
kissed and made up with arch-rival Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the glue that brought them together was their
common anti-Musharraf conviction. A civilian prime minister, the little
known Yousaf Raza Gilani was appointed a caretaker of sorts. In the
intervening months, the brittle nature of the PPP-PML(N) coalition
became all too visible. The PML-N left the coalition and it appeared as
if Musharraf would be able to exploit this characteristic rift among
Pakistan's major political parties - as the military has so successfully
done since the 1950's.
However, the developments of Aug 7 have been dramatic - though not too
unexpected. The PPP and the PML-N have come together in their desire to
impeach General Musharraf - who in their view has violated many
constitutional provisions - and usurped the high office of president.
The normally feisty Musharraf had earlier planned to go to Beijing for
the opening of the Olympics but latest reports indicate that he has
prudently chosen to stay back in Islamabad to see how the 'impeachment
cookie' crumbles.
The current power struggle is between the PPP, PML-N and a section of
the judiciary, backed by the liberal spectrum of civil society on one
side; ranged against them are the president, the PML-Q, some of the
rightwing parties and elements in the ISI - who have now become
autonomous actors. The key constituency is the Pakistani military and
the orientation of the current army chief, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani
and his Corps Commanders who form Pakistan Military Inc. Will they
support the beleaguered president and the corporate interest of the
military as an institution - or will they bow to popular sentiment and
support the civilian dispensation of the PPP and PML-N? And how will the
White House react even as it remains dependent and yet critical of the
ISI's role in the war against terror?
Many other complex and tangled under-currents lie beneath the surface.
But on current evidence and past experience, the probability of
Musharraf dissolving parliament and imposing an emergency cannot be
ruled out. In the event, Pakistan will enact the Sisyphean saga again
and the 'fauj' will once again summarily displace the civilian
leadership.
Today the Pakistani state as epitomized by Islamabad is in danger of
being estranged from one section of its people - the neo-Taliban and the
religious right wing as also losing a large part of territory. The FATA
and NWFP provinces have become what Professor Harold Gould has
perceptively described as the new 'jihadistan'. Peshawar may soon be
declared its capital.
The Pakistani military must prevail in its current campaign against the
neo-Taliban. This is a legitimate task but some elements are reminiscent
of 1970-71. At that time, the Pakistani 'fauj', advised by the wily
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, rejected equitable political accommodation and
ostensibly preserved the 'integrity' of the Pakistani state as defined
by the 'fauj'. This led to mass killings of Bengali citizens and led to
the dismemberment of Pakistan when its eastern part became the liberated
Bangladesh. Apart from losing territory, the Pakistani Army had the
blood of its own erstwhile citizens on its hands and has not undergone a
catharsis or reconciliation with its dark and dubious past record that
has tainted its pre 1947 professionalism.
Today General Musharraf sits atop this volatile and complex dynamic that
is sloshing around in Pakistan and the proverbial triumvirate of Allah,
Army and America are pitted both against one another and - together -
against the will of the Pakistani people endorsed by the global support
for civilian rule. A tactical ploy by the ISI backed by the more
virulent military that has not changed its 'India as the arch-enemy'
mindset is evident in the recent incidents of firing along the
India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC). Is the Pakistan GHQ playing the
nationalist card and stoking latent insecurity about the eastern Indian
front, even as it knows that the western Afghan front is a lost cause?
Will this red-herring work?
These are turbulent times and the days following Aug 11 are likely to
push Pakistan to the brink - again. India and other major interlocutors
of Pakistan should be more alert than ever before as the Musharraf
impeachment drama unfolds.
August 8, 2008
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