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Opinion
Russia-NATO: Return of the Great Game
by Ilya Kramnik
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, many intellectuals in Russia and
the West announced "the end of history". It seemed that the United
States' complete domination of the world was not disputed by anyone.
The subsequent decade, during which Russia lost its foreign policy
positions, and its former satellites and even provinces became US and
NATO allies, seemed to have buttressed this idea.
The first signal that the situation was changing came Sep 11, 2001, when
it appeared that US domination did not guarantee Washington absolute
security.
For the first time since the Soviet Union's collapse, the US had to
bargain in order to guarantee the loyalty of its allies. With the start
of the Iraqi conflict, US domination was called into question even more
openly, despite obvious successes in the post-Soviet space such as the
admission of the Baltic nations into NATO and permission to use bases in
Central Asia.
In the second half of the first decade of the new century a new trend
has become visible. Russia's consolidation, buoyed by a favorable
economic situation and political stabilization, raised the issue of
spheres of influence, at least in the post-Soviet space and Eastern
Europe.
The issues of missile defence and the Kosovo problem proved the Rubicon
of East-West relations. The West demonstratively ignored Russia's
position, and this was bound to evoke response. Russia had to face
military confrontation and settle disputes in the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) to its own benefit, without looking to the
West.
Almost as soon as Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, many observers
began to see Georgia as the most probable arena of an armed conflict
with Russia. All the prerequisites for this were in place - Georgia's
conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the presence of many Russian
citizens in these republics, and Tbilisi's open desire to subjugate the
rebellious territories.
There is no need to describe the history of the five-day war again. Its
main geopolitical result is not the recognition of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia but the return of political confrontation between Russia and the
West.
What could it lead to?
Nobody wants a military solution to the conflict, which could be fatal
for the whole world. Both sides will have to prove their cases by
political and economic means.
Russia's integration into the world economy over the last 15 years has
led to a situation where the West cannot inflict serious damage on it
without hurting itself as much, if not more.
As a result, Russia's main lobbyists to Western governments are the
Western companies, for which a quarrel with the eastern neighbor could
be financially ruinous.
Apart from oil and gas, there are agreements on the supply of Russian
titanium spare parts for the world's biggest aircraft-builders, the
Russian market for cars and other hardware, and many other spheres where
cessation of economic cooperation will deal substantial damage to
Western interests.
And there are political, as well as financial, interests that would be
damaged by confrontation with Russia.
Space cooperation between Russia and the United States, the air corridor
granted by Russia for NATO flights to Afghanistan and some other
programmes are not as obvious as oil and gas supplies, but are too
important to be jeopardized over Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia.
What will global confrontation be like now? It is clear that the point
of no return has already been reached. Russia is not prepared to
renounce its positions as it did in the 1990s. The West may be
indignant, but it will have to face reality - it has become too
expensive to risk.
Where will the next round of confrontation after Georgia take place?
It is hard to predict with certainty, but it is likely to be in Ukraine,
where not only the destiny of the Black Sea Fleet but also Russia's
influence in Eastern Europe is at stake. This round will be bloodless.
At any rate, I would like to hope that Ukraine is not going to oust the
Black Sea Fleet from the Crimea by force.
However, the propaganda confrontation will be much more intense than in
Georgia. A world event is not the one in which 10,000 take part, but the
one which is being filmed by 10 TV cameras.
September 6, 2008
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