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Opinion
By-poll Shocks for Ruling Parties, Except
in Gujarat
by Amulya Ganguli
Within four months of the Congress's success in the parliamentary
polls, the party has been rudely jolted in the latest round of assembly
by-elections.
After a severe drubbing in Gujarat, where the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wrested five seats from the Congress along
with one in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress lost two seats - Okhla and
Dwarka - in its supposed stronghold of Delhi to the Rashtriya Janata Dal
(RJD) and the BJP.
It was the RJD's good showing, however,
especially in Bihar, which will surprise most observers. While the BJP
can be said to have demonstrated its continuing clout in Narendra Modi's
Gujarat, which it tends to regard as its pocket borough under Modi's
dominant figure, former railway minister Lalu Yadav's RJD has virtually
risen from the ashes in Bihar.
So has Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok
Janshakti Party (LJP). Both the RJD and the LJP had been written off
after their dismal performance in the parliamentary elections when the
RJD won a humiliating four seats and the LJP none at all compared to the
Janata Dal-United's (JD-U) 20 and the BJP's 12.
The RJD's and the
LJP's unmistakable revival is all the more creditable because the Nitish
Kumar government was apparently faring quite satisfactorily in Bihar by
managing to restore a modicum of law and order after the chaotic years
under Lalu Prasad's chief ministership, and by beginning the task of
infrastructure development, albeit slowly.
No one was surprised,
therefore, when the ruling JD-U-BJP government pushed the RJD and the
LJP to the wall a few months ago. But both Lalu Prasad and Paswan have
shown that there is life after an electoral setback. On the other hand,
Nitish Kumar will realise, as will his partner, the BJP, that much more
needs to be done if they want to retain the loyalty of the voters.
The Bihar contest had been regarded as some kind of mini-election
since as many as 18 seats were involved. Of them, the RJD bagged six -
the highest tally - and its ally, the LJP, three while the JD-U won
three and the BJP two.
By winning two seats, the same as the BJP, the Congress showed that it
hasn't lost its foothold in the state. However, the Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP)'s victory in only one seat demonstrated that its commanding
influence in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh has not percolated into Bihar.
What is immediately evident from these results is that the ruling
parties in Delhi and Bihar have been snubbed by the electorate.
Arguably, the rising prices have contributed to the disillusionment with
the Congress after its comfortable victory in the parliamentary polls.
The party may have also been suffering from a sense of complacency
because of its success and the disarray in the BJP camp.
In
Bihar, Nitish Kumar's caste manipulations by way of wooing the extreme
backward castes may have led to a further consolidation of the Other
Backward Caste (OBC) votes, mainly from the Yadav community, behind Lalu
Prasad.
The Muslims, too, must have contributed to the RJD's
success because of their continuing uneasiness with the BJP, especially
after the recent indications about the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)
strengthening its grip on the BJP.
The state government's decision to set up a commission headed by a
former West Bengal government official, D. Bandopadhyay, on land reforms
probably frightened Nitish Kumar's upper caste supporters, mainly the
Bhumihars, who suspected that the rights of sharecroppers might be
formalised, as in Left-ruled West Bengal.
However, if the
anti-incumbency factor is responsible for the reverses experienced by
the ruling parties in Delhi and Bihar, this argument does not hold true
for Gujarat where Modi has shown that his influence remains
undiminished. Yet, the Gujarat chief minister can be said to suffer from
all the infirmities which would have felled a lesser figure. Not only is
he controversial at the national level because of his role in the 2002
riots, which are being probed by the Supreme Court, but he is not
particularly popular within his own party either.
While the BJP
leaders at the central level believe that his presence will undermine
the cohesion of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Modi has
powerful opponents, led by former chief minister Keshubhai Patel, in his
home state. The RSS, too, is not very fond of him because of his
independent manner of doing things, which is why he has fallen out with
his "childhood friend", Pravin Togadia of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad
(VHP).
Even then, his run of successes shows that he has
captured the imagination of a large section of Gujaratis. Although both
Sheila Dikshit and Nitish Kumar have acquired an element of charisma
because of their development-oriented approach - even the local RJD
leaders do not hesitate to praise the Bihar chief minister - they are
still not immune to debilitating electoral factors like internal
dissensions and the division of votes, as in Okhla where a four-corned
contest enabled the RJD to win.
(Amulya
Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at aganguli@mail.com)
IANS |
September 19, 2009
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