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PlainSpeak
USA’s Global
Predominance
Under Challenge
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
The
United States has enjoyed an unchallenged global predominance ever since
the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the
erstwhile Soviet Union. The United States during the Cold War years had
to contend with the global countervailing power of the Soviet Union in
the strategic regions the world over. The Cold War era in terms of
international relations provided a predictable template for both the
major powers and the lesser powers too. In such an environment even at
the level of the two superpowers each virtually respected the strategic
sensitivities of the other and their respective spheres of influence.
Regional conflicts for various reasons did take place but not allowed to
cross red lines where the two superpowers would be involved in a direct
conflict.
In the period ensuing the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United
States had a free run across the globe and was able to impose its own
strategic agenda in the vital strategic regions of the world extending
from Europe to the Pacific. In this process the United States was able
to unravel the Warsaw Pact from Eastern Europe and extend NATO’S
boundaries to the doorsteps of heartland Russia. In West Asia ,the
United States was able to launch the two Gulf Wars against Iraq with
impunity .In East Asia, China which had been a quasi-strategic ally of
the United States in the penultimate stage of the Cold War and now
displaying trends towards strategic autonomy was being put under
strategic pressure by the United States on grounds of democracy and
human rights violations.
The United States free run in its global predominance was facilitated by
a number of factors. China’s military modernization was still in a
nascent stage. Russia was still dominated by a leadership which viewed
itself now as a natural ally of the West. In West Asia in Gulf War I ,
prominent Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria had been
coalition partners of the United States war against Iraq for reasons of
their own.
In the latter half of the first decade of the 21st century things seem
to be changing. The United States unrivalled global predominance seems
to be increasingly coming under challenge. Russia is in the process of
both strategic and economic resurgence. China’s military modernization
and its strategic intent is now being perceived in the United States as
a threat in East Asia and the Pacific. Russia and China are now
strategic partners with convergent interests to challenge American
global predominance. They have already given notice to this effect in
Central Asia.
What does all this portend to the United States? The signs are ominous
and the United States would be well advised to take notice of all this.
Most importantly, Russia and China will increasingly challenge the
United States in East Asia , Central Asia and West Asia--- all strategic
to American national security interests. The United States will
increasingly face counter-pressure points from both of these in
different parts of the world.
In such a developing scenario the United States has a daunting task that
by its unilateralist policies it does not create new enemies, retain old
friends and take on board those nations it should and in the process
learn to respect the strategic sensitivities of all of them. Can the
United States do it? Hopefully the United States can shed its
unilateralist impulses, but this only time will tell.
February 5, 2006
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PlainSpeak
The Week of February 5, 2006
Workshop
# 16 Special
New
Great Game : Musharraf Misses Writing on the Wall by Rajinder
Puri
USA's Global Predominance Under Challenge by
Dr. Subhash Kapila
Now the Dominoes are Really Falling, Arjuna by
Gaurang Bhatt, MD
Are the Nations' Contributions Enough for the
Promotion of World Peace? by TA Ramesh
Gratitude by
Sugandha Indulkar
Fidelity and Trust by K. Bhuvaneshwari Bhagat
“Farm” Your Mind to Exercise in
Synchrony by Rajgopal Nidamboor
Vastu, Temples and Pyramids by Niranjan Babu
Bangalore
The Civil Lies by Vivek Kaul
Kids Say No to Marriage by Usha Revelli
Birthing Nightmare by Sachin Kumar Jain
The Math in Gender by Nitin Jugran Bahuguna
Sharing Dark Silences by Smita Jain
Garbage Out, Garbage In by Chitra
Balasubramaniam
Feminist Combats the Army by Anat Cohen
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