Political instability in Nepal should be a cause of strategic concern for India. Nepal is India’s northern neighbor and is strategically located as a buffer state between India and China. For a stretch of nearly 1800 km in the North the borders of India with Nepal were an ‘open border’ freeing India from defensive manning of this long stretch.

The Maoists in Nepal were engaged in an insurgency for over a decade against the Government headed by the Nepalese Monarch. They did manage to extend their sway over large tracts of Nepalese territory in the inaccessible areas ill-served by communication links.

The Maoists however did not have the military capability or the numbers to gain full control over Nepal by overthrowing the established regime. In fact as a result of the Maoist insurgency the Royal Nepal Army was in the process of being expanded and upgraded with India’s assistance.

More than a year ago, the situation for the Nepalese Maoist insurgents changed. The Indian Government under intense pressure from its majority Leftists Coalition partners was prompted to change its policies towards Nepal. In fact India’s Leftist leaders got a free hand to craft Indian foreign policy on Nepal.

The Indian Government was mistakenly led to believe that if the Nepalese Maoists insurgents were co-opted into the Nepalese political process, it would contribute towards political stability in Nepal. Consequently, the parleys by India’s Leftist leaders, the Indian Government interlocutors and the Nepalese Maoist leaders it was agreed that the Maoists would end the insurgency, the insurgents were to move into designated camps to be supervised under United Nations auspices and that the Nepalese Maoists would join the Interim Government which would then hold elections for a Constituent Assembly which would decide the future political set-up in Nepal. The Nepalese Monarch was forced to give up the powers that he had and await his political future to be decided by a Constituent Assembly.

Thus in one stroke the Nepalese Maoists were given political legitimacy in the governing setup of Nepal, in what could be said as courtesy by the Indian Government. This is something that they could have never achieved on their own.

The elections after many delays stood scheduled for November 2007 and it was hoped that with the Maoists sharing political power, it would be an orderly process especially with UN observers also involved.

However, the Maoists have been acting otherwise. As the run-in to the Nepalese elections closes-in the Maoists have indulged in making impossible demands on the Interim Government. This has even drawn criticism from United States Western countries and the United Nations mission also. As a further pressure tactic the Maoist Ministers in the Interim Government tendered their resignations demanding that Nepal be declared a Republic instantly without awaiting the formation of a Constituent Assembly after the elections.

As things stand today the political situation in Nepal looks uncertain. Analytically, it seems that the Nepalese Maoists are no longer confident that they could capture power in Nepal through the ballot box. In fact they seem convinced on this fact and hence the fixation on disrupting, postponing further or cancellation of the elections.

With the Maoists no longer committed to the political process that was scripted. Nepal seems to be heading towards continued political instability. This is likely to be further heightened as the Maoists ensured that as part of their political deal, the Royal Nepal Army underwriting of Nepal’s security was circumscribed and a ‘security vacuum’ created which could then be exploited by the Maoists

Political instability in Nepal could be a major strategic headache for India. The Indian Government may now be regretting that it even brought the Nepalese Maoists into political power and imparted political legitimacy to them.

India as the regional power in South Asia and with Nepal’s political instability impacting on India’s national security interests should now be prepared for some hard decisions on Nepal. The Nepalese Maoists no longer convinced of acquiring power through the ballot may revert back to the bullet.

October 28, 2007

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