Nepal on the eve of the
twice postponed Constituent Assembly elections now scheduled for April
2008 does not provide a promising or optimistic picture. The main reason
has been that the Nepali Maoists who were facilitated by faulty Indian
policies to enter Nepal’s political space have been persistently
muddying Nepalese political situation by unreasonable demands in the
run-up to the elections. The Nepalese Prime Minister has been coerced
and pressurized to give in to Maoists demands including the abolition of
Nepal’s constitutional monarchy and declaring Nepal a Republic. The
Nepalese Maoist leader has not disguised his intentions to be Nepal’s
first President pre-supposing that the Maoists would capture power in
the elections. The possibility of Nepalese Maoists capturing political
power in Nepal through the ballot and failing which through bullets does
not seem to have received serious attention by India’s political
leadership despite the grave security implications posed to India by
such an eventuality.
The most important question for India and the free world which basically
includes the United States, Britain and other Western countries is
whether a Maoist regime in Nepal is politically desirable and militarily
acceptable in terms of their respective national security interests.
Repeatedly emphasized in this Column for the last two years has been the
fact that India has committed a strategic folly comparable to Nehru’s
pre-1962 strategic folly in trusting China and over-investing in their
political sincerity. A Nepalese Maoist regime in Nepal would facilitate
China’s military presence along the over 2000 km stretch of India’s
borders along Bihar and Uttar Pradesh along which stood the buffer state
of Nepal under a Hindu constitutional monarchy.
Maoist Nepal as China’s military surrogate would be only a stone’s throw
from Bangladesh which too is a Chinese surrogate if the Bangladesh-China
Defense Co-operation Agreement that exists between the two countries is
taken in account. Further, the Indian Maoists and Naxalite insurgencies
that are threatening India’s internal security would find ready
sanctuaries in Maoist -ruled Nepal besides an inexhaustible source of
Chinese weaponry.
A Maoist Nepal would also pose security threats to India-friendly Bhutan
via the sizeable Nepalese -origin Bhutanese living in refugee camps in
Nepal. All in all the entire range of the activities outlined above in
the event of a Maoist regime emerging in Nepal would be strategically
destabilizing for India.
Similarly, the prospects of a Chinese military presence materializing
courtesy a Maoist regime in Nepal on the Bay of Bengal littoral or in
close proximity of it would be strategically disconcerting for the
United States and Britain. Presently a China-friendly Myanmar is
strategically irritating for the United States and Britain. What would
be their reaction to the virtually contiguous stretch of Nepal,
Bangladesh and Myanmar all militarily tied and under Chinese military
influence?
The alternative to forestall a Maoist regime in Nepal is to marshal the
pro-monarchy elements in Nepal which includes the Nepal Army and not
forgetting the 48% Madhesia population of Nepal violently opposed to the
Nepalese Maoists and provide them support necessary to re-emerge in
political power in Nepal.
The Indian policy establishment may have had a personal dislike for the
present Nepalese monarch for various reasons but this dislike should not
over-rule the imperatives of India’s national security which
dictate that a Maoist-ruled Nepal carries all the possibilities of
turning into a security threat for India.
Faced with such a strategic predicament, India’s policy establishment
would be well advised to follow the lead of the United States which in
such predicaments always chooses the lesser of the two evils.
In the case of Nepal and its linkages to India’s national security
interests the answer is obvious. A constitutional monarchy in Nepal
however much disliked by India’s policy establishment would be a lesser
and controllable evil.
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