Going by the string of
eight consecutive victories in State Assembly Elections the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) seems to be set to fight the 2008 General Elections
on a high and buoyant note. The latest victory in Karnataka has added to
its image of embedding itself for the first time in South India on its
own strength. However, the pattern in the past has been that the Indian
electorate follows different patterns in the General Elections and
different priorities in the State Assembly elections as in the case of
the latter the local issues and problems predominate.
As the run-up to the 2009
General Elections can be said to be underway now besides the issues of
inflation, rising prices of basic necessities and terrorism-induced
insecurity, the Indian electorate can be said to be also pondering over
the Prime Ministerial candidates each political party would be
projecting.
As I wrote in this Column
after Modi’s victory in the Gujarat Assembly Elections that one reason
for Modi’s successive victories despite the Indian media being
virulently ranged against him was that the Indian electorate was hungry
for “strong, bold and assertive political leadership” The same sentiment
can be expected to come into play for the 2009 General Elections also.
So far it is only the BJP which has had the political courage to declare
that Shri L K Advani would lead the Party in the General Elections and
that he would be the Prime Minister when called to form the Government.
The ruling Congress Party has consistently shied away from naming its
Prime Ministerial candidate. In traditional mode of sycophancy there was
a call from senior Congress Party leaders that Rahul Gandhi should be
the Congress’s choice for Prime Minister. After about two weeks of such
kite flying the powers to be declared that such demands should stop.
However at the same time the Congress Party singularly failed to declare
that the current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh would continue to be
the Prime Minister if the Congress was again to come to power.
Political observers read this contradictory silence of the Congress
Party on not naming its Prime Ministerial candidate as a strategic
reluctance determined by the adverse performance of the Congress in
Assembly elections. There was a feeling that if the Congress had come to
power in Karnataka then the vocal clamor for Rahul Gandhi to be the next
Prime Minister would have been allowed to pick up more steam. But with
the loss of Karnataka the Congress leaders were at pains to stress that
the Congress defeat was due to the failure of the Congress machinery in
the State and that Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi cannot be blame for the
loss despite their electioneering in the State.
The Congress Party can still be expected to project at the last moment
that Rahul Gandhi as their Prime Ministerial candidate with the aim of
making an election issue of “youth versus old age” of Shri Advani. More
so if the Congress Party can win the next two State Assembly elections.
Such a political strategy of the Congress Party has a number of
pitfalls. The first one being that except for the Congress others have
serious doubts that the iconic political appeal of the Nehru-Gandhi
dynasty continues to be a strong magnet to win over the electorate.
Secondly, if the foregoing reading is correct then with the country
facing serious security and economic challenges the electorate may opt
for “maturity, wisdom and experience” that comes with age and long
political experience as opposed to the “youth” factor of a dynastic
member.
While the political focus will necessarily dwell on the Prime
Ministerial candidates of the two major political parties one cannot
lose sight of political dark horses emerging if the electorate again
throws a fragmented mandate with regional parties like the BSP or the SP
making strong showings and emerging as kingmakers. In that scenario one
cannot rule out Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav throwing their hats in
the ring for becoming India’s Prime Minister.
All in all, the next few months will witness the Indian political scene
being constantly churned. But one stills feels tempted to assert that
the Indian electorate stands disillusioned by empty political slogans
like secularism and wasteful political initiatives of wasting crores of
rupees on appeasement of the minority and backward classes vote-banks.
National security especially against terrorism and economic security may
emerge as the predominant considerations in the 2009 General Elections.
June 8,
2008
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