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Random Thoughts
India's Leadership Crisis
Impact on Defense and Politics
by
Gaurang Bhatt, MD
 Some
persons may not like my harping on the failures of Indian leadership,
but my article on failed policies has become presciently true. I
criticized the delay in testing Agni 3 while waiting for US permission,
the self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapon testing that the US made
into a condition for the treaty by shifting goal posts, the failure of
the Arjuna MBT, the delays of the LCA and the foolishness of buying
major arms from America. Let me review the latest developments and give
you my new prescription.
Nuclear Treaty
India’s problem is the lack of significant uranium ore, limited
capability for enriching it and lack of expertise in constructing
greater than 1000MW nuclear power plants. It wanted to get a supply of
HEU under IAEA and NSG safeguards for use in civilian nuclear power
plants. It was downright foolish of ignorant and politically naive
Manmohan Singh to sign an agreement with America and Bush without
understanding anything. US presidents may sign treaties but they do not
become effective until ratified by the Senate. There is an existent US
law passed by both the House and Senate, the bodies of the legislative
branch (which alone is permitted to make US laws–not the president)
which prohibit the sale of nuclear material to any nation that is not a
signatory to the NPT.
Bush knew that the treaty could not become valid till the house and
senate had passed a special law exempting India from the prior law. He
also knew that the two bodies would attach additional restrictive
amendments to the exemption for India. His Republican party controls the
majority in both bodies so if he really wanted he could have expedited
the passage of the bill. His main purpose was to restrict the HEU and
Plutonium supplies available to India for making bombs. He also knew
that India’s fusion device (H-bomb) had failed to detonate successfully
in the 1998 tests. He also knew that non-proliferation supporters and
many Democrats were unhappy with the agreement with India and were sure
to add many restrictive amendments to the bill.
Thus the clause that the agreement would be null and void if India
tested a weapon was added. Other clauses set a future limit to cut off
production of fissile material and banned India from processing spent
fuel and sharing any enrichment technology with India. He had two more
motives to manipulate India. He wanted to sell F-16s to Pakistan and was
able to do so by fooling Manmohan by telling him that since he had
signed the nuclear deal with India, he had to sell the planes to keep
Pakistan happy. There was the additional hope that he could thus
persuade India to buy with cash even more expensive Super Hornets. The
other motive was to twist India’s arm to back off the
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and to make India vote against Iran at
the IAEA and the UN.
Our foolish leaders with little understanding for international politics
and no understanding of American politics were made suckers. The House
passed the bill, but the Senate is gone without passing the deal. A new
House will be elected in November 2006 and thus the incomplete bill will
expire and the whole process will have to begin again in January 2007.
Eighteen months after Manmohan Singh went home elated and boasting about
the nuclear pact, there is nothing to show. Australia, which supplies
uranium ore to China refused to look favorably towards India’s needs and
has delayed its decision. In the meantime Russia came through with a
consignment of HEU. Russia is an antagonist of America after its bitter
experiences of 1991 onwards which dissolved the Soviet Union, sent the
Russian economy into a tailspin by following US prescribed
privatization, enlargement of NATO and the various revolutions in
Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrghyzstan, all part of Russia’s sphere. All these
were orchestrated by the US.
Aircraft Procurement
In the hope of pleasing America by buying its aircraft, the Indian
government has delayed making any decisions. The other reason was that
the indigenous LCA Tejas would solve the problem. In the meantime
Pakistan has acquired the newest and nuclear bomb delivery capable F-16s
from America. Air Marshal Tyagi has warned of India losing its advantage
over Pakistan. Our squadrons will decline from 39 to 25 and Pakistan
will match us. The retarded Indian government delayed purchase of the
French Mirage-5 (2000) until Dassault closed the production line. It has
now offered the more expensive Rafaele. The Russians offered the MiG-35.
Admittedly the Russian avionics are not as good as the American, Israeli
or French ones, but India could have worked out a deal like the one for
the Sukhoi-30 MKI, which has a combination of systems from Israel and
France on a Russian frame and engine. Even there we had to abort the
plan to assemble the Sukhoi at HAL as it would have delayed the full
complements of the air-force till 2017. We therefore paid Russia an
extra 300 million dollars to let them assemble the planes and finish
delivery by 2012.
India delayed in the hope of pleasing America and now as per the latest
announcement will buy second hand Mirages from France and Qatar in hurry
and panic. The dumb leaders have forgotten the previous US sanctions
that denied us spare parts for US Sea Hawk helicopters, GE engines for
the LCA and Cryogenic engines for ISRO. As I have previously stated the
LCA is much behind schedule and consists of nearly 75% imported parts.
It is indeed a shame that we cannot develop our own technology but what
is downright asinine is that we don’t collaborate or go in joint
production with more sophisticated countries. Once again Russia is
willing and needs some joint financing.
The other good thing about Russia is that it does not put restrictions
on whom you sell the finished product to. The Chinese JF-17 uses Russian
engines and is being given to Pakistan without Russian objections, even
though Russia is friendly with us. If any US spare parts are used in our
product, the plane cannot be sold to any third party that the US
disapproves of. Our LCA clearly cannot meet our sophisticated and
advanced needs if we use only Indian parts. What is the use of making
the LCA, if we cannot sell it abroad and have to import most of its
parts? It is better to team up with France, Israel or Russia. The
problem with Israel is that it is too dependent on the US and had to
abandon its own fighter ( Kfir) to please America. This is not to imply
that we must be dependent solely on Russia. Any deal with America has to
involve total transfer of technology with no reservations or veto power.
It is also likely to be much more expensive and would need greater
offsets. Pakistan is too important for America because of Central Asia
and terrorism. India is not, as the latest absurd rebuke to India from
the US Ambassador to Pakistan clearly proves. He recommended that if
India has proof that the ISI was involved in the Mumbai train bombings,
India should not announce it publicly, but inform Pakistan privately. He
is more interested in defending the culprit than siding with the victim.
Arjuna MBT
We have been developing the tank for over thirty years and yet do not
have a prototype that can be used for war, only for training. Pakistan
makes its own tanks (Khalid) and submarines (Agosta from France). We
assembled German HDW submarines but let our expertise lapse. Now the
government just announced that they will buy an extra 1000 T90 tanks
from Russia to make up for our incompetence.
We are all aware that private industry is motivated by money, but our
government arms factories are not motivated at all and subject to quotas
and other handicaps. We need to run them with competent people and on
merit by getting rid of non-performing bureaucrats and other personnel.
The Atomic energy department seems to function much more efficaciously
and the DRDO needs to be revamped along those lines.
Politics
Finally we cannot have parties or their leaders who are more interested
in propitiating Pakistan, the West or China at the cost of the nation.
Those who are wedded to religions or ideology that trump nationality or
the nation’s future, should not be included in governing coalitions for
the sake of lust for power by the Congress or the BJP. This would first
require that the parties use some intelligence and common sense in
choosing their leaders and the electorate in casting their ballots.
October 8,
2006
Image under license with
Gettyimages.com
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Random Thoughts
The Week of October 8, 2006
Goodbye America? N-deal Setback may be Tip of
Iceberg! by Rajinder Puri
India's Leadership Crisis : Impact on Defense and
Politics by Gaurang Bhatt, MD
Presidential System of Government for India
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Always Yes to Planned Murder by Terrorists by
V. Sundaram
Parliament Attack: The Clemency Chaos by
Nagesh Padmanaban
Indo-Pak relations: It’s time to end the relations
by Dr. Deepak Pawar
Dengue Et Al: A Billion Terrorists Strike
by Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
SPAC: Special Purpose Acquisition Company by
Deepak Dahiya
Railway Safety is No Accident! by Arya Bhushan
Empires and Dust: Travels in Modern India -
III by Ashish Nangia
Distressed Habitation by VK Joshi
Dal: A Lake or a Polluted Pond? by Naira
Yaqoob
A Matter of Faith by Naira Yaqoob
In Search of God by Pradeep Joshi
Mahisasura-Mardini: The Sacred Narrative of Durga
Ma by Aparna Chatterjee
Is Hero Worship still there? by TA Ramesh
Pandit Shyamaji Krishna Verma: Salutations to a
Great Revolutionary by V. Sundaram
Secret India at war celebrates its re-invented
past by Marc-Olivier Parlatano
Creation of a second capital of Karnataka in Belgaum
by Niranjan Babu Bangalore
The Future History of Taiwan by William R.
Stimson
Sex Workers Take Charge by Usha Revelli
New Day Dawns for Child Servants by Mini Sharma
From Tashkent to the World by Albina Belevich
A Circle of Peace by Stephanie Hiller
Text Books for Change by Deepti Priya Mehrotra
Happy Dusshera! by Glory Sasikala Franklin
Where Myths & Superstitions Heal by Anil Gulati
Of Birds, Bees, Beasts and Other Animals by
Julia Dutta
When I was Pin-ned down! by Prakash Pathre
The Witty Side by Melvin Durai
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