Madison, the architect of the American Constitution was amongst the wisest and
most perceptive of the founding fathers, but still not immune from
personal egotistic follies that transcended his virtues. His analysis of
war and the presidency are amongst his finest and acutest writings and
essential reading for all Americans and the world.
Yet Madison fell prey to his own vanity when he chose war
against powerful Britain under a misapprehension that he would
be greeted with flowers as a liberator in Canada in 1812.
The
invasion of Canada failed dismally. The British attacked and
sacked Washington DC, burning the White House. The US was saved
by Britain’s preoccupation with a conquering Napoleonic France
and the military genius of Andrew Jackson in the Battle of New
Orleans, which post dated the already signed truce.
“W”, who is a mere puppet, was misguided by the neo-cons into a
hubris that the conquest of Iraq would be greeted similarly by
the natives oppressed by Saddam and looked on by the world as a
humanitarian intervention to promote human rights and democracy,
while providing America total control of Iraq’s oil wealth at a
cheap price with reliability of supply and a stranglehold over
the energy needs of Europe, Japan, China and India, while an
impotent Russia unable to thwart the invasion went along meekly.
Iran, Saudi Arabia and the energy rich Gulf Kingdoms would
kowtow to the new Emperor with kurnishes and tributes. Instead
the insurgency has announced to the world that the boy emperor
has no clothes and how naked and vulnerable he is.
Madison's Analysis
“Of all the enemies of true liberty, war is, perhaps,
the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and
develops the germ of every other.
War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts
and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the
known instruments for bringing the many under the
domination of the few.
In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is
extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors
and emoluments is multiplied; and all the means of
seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the
force, of the people.
The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced
in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of
fraud, growing out of a state of war, and in the
degeneracy of manner and of morals, engendered in both.
No nation can preserve its freedom in the midst of
continual warfare.
War is in fact the true nurse of executive
aggrandizement. In war, a physical force is to be
created; and it is the executive will, which is to
direct it.
In war, the public treasuries are to be unlocked; and it
is the executive hand which is to dispense them.
In war, the honors and emoluments of office are to be
multiplied; and it is the executive patronage under
which they are to be enjoyed; and it is the executive
brow they are to encircle.
The strongest passions and most dangerous weaknesses of
the human breast; ambition, avarice, vanity, the
honorable or venal love of fame, are all in conspiracy
against the desire and duty of peace.”
The US attempts to bring Ukraine into its fold are failing due
to infighting between political factions. Revolution in
Kirghyzstan is failing. Kazaqkhstan and Turkmenistan have
rejected a pipeline excluding Russia and thrown their lot in
with the Gazprom planned Russian pipeline. This is likely to
prevent Germany and France from alienating Russia on whom they
depend for energy and marginalize Poland and its justifiable
antagonism to Russia. It also increases the importance of Iran
as an alternative energy source to avoid total dependence on
Russia for an energy starved EU, thus throwing a monkey wrench
into the US plans to browbeat and attack Iran. Turkey, rejected
for EU membership and annoyed by the US partiality to Kurds and
fearful of an oil rich Kurdish Republic including oil rich
Kirkuk, is looking eastward and more likely to co-operate with
Russia, Central Asia and give more breathing room for its
resurgent Islamic culture and thinking under Erdogan's justice
party.
Many critical events are happening. The US keeps bombing civilians to
counter the Taliban who hide amongst the population. The puppet Karzai
keeps protesting against indiscriminate aerial bombing and receives no
attention. The Afghans in the Pashtun region are fed up with the
corruption of the national army and police and civilian deaths, and are
turning to the Taliban. The Taliban encourages poppy production and the
spraying and destruction of the poppy crop further alienates the poor
farmers who cannot survive without it due to lack of economic
opportunities. The Taliban uses illicit drug trade to finance their arms
procurement. The upper house of the Afghan parliament has voted for
withdrawal of foreign troops and a cease fire and negotiations with the
Taliban.
The Iraqi parliament refuses to pass the oil law that the US wants and
at the behest of Sadr has passed a non-binding resolution for setting a
fixed date for withdrawal of foreign troops. The US congress attached a
deadline for withdrawal of US troops for additional funding of the war.
Bush vetoed the bill but there are serious obstacles to his getting what
he wants as even his Republicans have begun to defect. All these point
to a withdrawal of the US from Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush’s poodle Blair
is finally quitting in dishonor and British troops will be recalled
sooner rather than later. Canada is worried about its losses in
Afghanistan. It is likely that the Taliban will be brought into the
government in Afghanistan and US withdrawal from Iraq will begin by
September.
Earlier Germany elected a more right leaning pro-US chancellor in Merkel
and now France did the same in Sarkozy. The rightward swing in both old
and new Europe is an ab-reaction against Muslim immigration and previous
Soviet domination respectively. France, Germany and UK are likely to
align their policies more to America and thus the ban against arms sales
to China will hold. It is crucial for India to obtain advanced western
arms technology while China is denied it. Once the ban is lifted, the
richer financial and economic clout of China and its advanced technology
compared to India will make China a much more formidable advanced
conventional military power beyond India’s reach.
The problem is that the gas pipeline deal with Iran and economic
relations increase US displeasure and even more so if India walks away
from the nuclear treaty. I am not at all suggesting that India should
sign the treaty. My purpose is to think ahead about the consequences of
its failure and be prepared for it both militarily and economically.
Currently the Tejas LCA uses GE 404 engines and India must seek an
alternative right away. Russian RD33 engine technology has been licensed
and India is seeking collaboration with French Snecma for the Kaveri
engine. This must be speeded up and know-how acquired before the nuclear
deal fails.
The Arjun MBT uses a German engine and foreign components and once again
it is essential to get full licenses for indigenous production before
any restrictions can be put. Similar collaboration for night vision
equipment, rifles, machine guns, avionics, EW and ECM systems and laser
guided bombs and ammunition, radars and UAVs with Israel, needs to be
speeded up to start production and bypass the risk of embargos. The
Scorpene assembling at home must be accelerated and India should quickly
sign a deal for the new German HDW submarines with silent hydrogen fuel
technology. If the LCAs and Arjuns can be totally made with indigenous
or licensed parts, it would make India significantly independent as far
as the army and air-force are concerned. It is worth beginning licensed
production of howitzers with Denel of South Africa despite the previous
bribery scandal, as it is more likely to be pro-India than others. Any
deal with Bofors needs to be speeded up as also the joint production of
fifth generation MRCAs with Russia.
As far as energy independence is concerned India will have to rely on
the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. Thus the Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipeline must be begun without delay. America is in such a bind that
Bush has three choices-1) Escalate the war by bombing Iran 2) Continue
the war only in Iraq and leave it to the next president to decide what
to do at the cost of treasure and casualties and a rout of the
Republican party in 2008 or 3) Withdraw well before the elections. Only
the first alternative would prevent India going ahead with the pipeline.
In Afghanistan co-option of the Taliban into the Afghan government would
return that country to the status of what it was, when the IA plane was
hijacked from Nepal. Pakistan would once again gain strategic depth and
be free to concentrate exclusively against India on the Southeastern
border. It would be better for India in that case that Afghanistan like
Iraq, be fragmented so that India could hope for friendly expanded
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
I am not suggesting that India kill the nuclear treaty if no agreement
on reprocessing, uninterrupted supply and future testing cannot be
reached. It should continue endless negotiations till the treaty dies an
unrequited death by time. As Parkinson’s third law states, delay is the
deadliest form of denial. I think things are coming to a head anyway,
what with the US congressional threat ultimatum to the Indian prime
minister, the upcoming visit of Secretary Burns to India and the
approaching deadline for the purchase of 126 MRCAs, which cannot be
postponed much more.
As multiple experts have tirelessly repeated, acquisition of nuclear
technology is neither essential nor adequate to meet India’s energy
deficit. At best by 2020 India can only hope to produce less than 10% of
its energy needs by nuclear power, even under all favorable
circumstances. Gas pipeline deal with Iran can yield three times or more
of power and fuel. Other deals with Bangladesh and Myanmar need to be
vigorously pursued and newly discovered Kampuchea oil and gas finds
deserve a closer look. If the US withdraws from Iraq which is unlikely,
India’s prior good relations with Iraq can be resurrected to tap an
additional energy source.
Finally, as mentioned above China has no access to European or American
arms technology and even Russia is careful about sharing the latest arms
technology for fear of overpopulated northeastern China spilling over
into the thinly populated Russian far east and taking over the previous
territories usurped by Russia from China in Siberia and Eastern Russia.
Nevertheless, China’s economy is twice the size of India and so are its
armed forces and military assets. India needs to follow the example of
Pakistan. Pakistan’s economic and military might is a fraction of those
of India. This is why it chose to opt for cheaper and indigenous stolen
nuclear weapons over costly imported conventional weapons and achieve
near parity to India for Mutually Assured Destruction as a deterrent.
India could counterbalance China much more economically and
independently by developing ICBMs and thermonuclear weapons rather than
its massive current spending spree for imported conventional weapons
which can be rendered useless by embargos, sanctions or interrupted
supply of spares. India needs to do match China by nuclear MAD and it
would be downright foolish and suicidal for India to stop increasing and
improving its nuclear arsenal by foregoing testing. It would be equally
foolish to renounce the right to reprocess spent fuel and thereby lock
itself into perpetual dependency on the mercy and whims of supply of HEU
by America. India is at a major fork in its history and must choose the
correct path with wisdom, foresight and resolve and not be pushed by any
alien power for purposes of domination, exploitation and ultimately
become disposable like Pakistan.
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