For decades
since independence in 1947, India had primarily relied on Soviet arms
with the exception of buying Jaguars and relevant technology during
Morarji Desai’s leadership. After the breakup of the Soviet Union during
Yeltsin’s infatuation with the West, India bought some French Mirage
2000s and German HDW submarines. Since liberal economic policies were
instituted and foreign exchange reserves have ballooned, India has
started looking at other suppliers, often in the West. Another reason
has been the delays in supply and poor quality spares due to the
economic and political troubles of Russia. The availability of more
sophisticated electronics from Israel is another factor.
For many
years now, Israel has been supplying over a billion dollars worth of
arms every year to India. The purchase of Green Pine Radar, Barak
anti-missile system, Elbit avionics, night vision goggles, sniper
rifles, precision ammunition, Spyder air defense SAMs and UAVs from
Israel, fire locating radars, USS Trenton, Sea King helicopters and C130
J transports from America, Scorpene submarines from France and Hawk jet
trainers and Fennec helicopters from the UK are evidence of a
diversification of suppliers.
Russia still
remains a major supplier and has supplied Krivak warships, submarines,
T90 tanks, Kamov and Mi helicopters, multiple rocket launchers, SU30 MKI
planes and various missiles including AAMs, SAMs, ASMs, and anti-ship
and anti-submarine missiles. The two countries have jointly produced the
Brahmos cruise missile and have inked agreements for nuclear submarines
and joint production of medium range transport aircraft and fifth
generation MRCAs. The present dispute is about delays and upward
negotiation of costs for the Gorshkov carrier and more SU30 MKIs.. The
reasons for the dispute are the falling dollar and Russia’s
strengthening economic status with practically eliminated foreign debt
and burgeoning reserves due to the high price of oil.
The unmentioned, but more important political reason is the glaringly
obvious and obsequious embrace of America by the current Indian
administration. Russia doesn't care so much about the acquiescing to the
referral of Iran to the UN Security Council, nixing the Iran gas
pipeline and the humiliating acceptance of the civil nuclear agreement
meant to bring India into compliance with the NPT and the CTBT by the
back door, as much as what they reveal about the Indian administration's
lack of backbone and resultant leaning inclinations. As a shot across
the bow, Russia reversed itself from the earlier decision to ban the
export of Chinese jet fighters with Russian engines to Pakistan and
asked for more money from India to fulfill the SU30 MKI contract and
Gorshkov refitting and postponed the dates of delivery. The arm twisting
is meant to ensure that India heeds the warning and hopefully chooses
the MiG 35 for the pending new 126 MRCA contract. The problem is that
Russia itself does not use MiG-35s and it may only be a slightly beefed
up MiG-29.
Russian arms manufacturers have less big paying clients than their US
and European counterparts. The US military itself is a big bulk buyer of
US arms and its allies like Japan, Australia, Turkey, the new East
European NATO members and client petro-states in the Middle East
purchases allow US arms manufacturers to sell enough numbers to
profitably develop and market their expensive high-tech ships and
planes. The old Europe EU members like the UK, Spain, Germany, Italy and
to a lesser extent France jointly develop ships, submarines and planes.
Russia’s big clients are mainly China, India, Iran, Syria with a
smattering of small orders from Malaysia, Indonesia, and the left
leaning Central and South American states. It lost a big client in Iraq
and will be hurt if it loses the majority of Indian orders. In fact it
has not deployed or completed many of its advanced arms and has spent
its money on modernizing its nuclear weapons to get a bigger bang for
its buck, a smart lesson that India seems unwilling to learn.
A few years earlier during its weak phase, the Russian foreign minister
had suggested a Russia, China, India alliance to counter the unipolar US
dominated world but the suspicions between China and India made that
unlikely, so Russia has put its shoulders in the service of China’s SCO.
Just as Russia punished belligerent Ukraine and Poland by demanding
market prices for its gas and building Western Europe supplying
pipelines bypassing Poland and Ukraine and scored a coup when
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan chose energy transit through Russian pipes
rather than the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and Uzbekistan closed its American
base, so now it is demanding higher payments from India for previously
negotiated arms deals.
India is not an essential ally, necessary for Russia’s geo-strategy, but
would be a major disadvantage for it if it joined the American enemy
camp. The same thinking holds true from the US point of view. India’s
three largest trade partners are the US, China and EU and it also is
better off retaining a flexible independent status. It has tried to get
the best of both worlds by buying cheaper and sturdier Russian planes
like the SU30 MKIs and equipping them with more advanced French and
Israeli avionics. This policy should be continued while keeping the US
happy with a small order of Super Hornets with Raytheon AESA radars and
the new maritime reconnaissance, anti-ship, anti-submarine aircraft from
Boeing and the newer HDW submarines from Germany, while dividing its
civilian aircraft orders between Boeing and Airbus.
If India chooses an American firm for the bulk or all of its MRCAs, it
maybe perceived as a major break by Russia and lead it to reassess the
entire relationship. It would also mean an additional burden for India
in servicing a totally new platform for which it has no expertise or
facilities. It has already licensed the Russian RD33 engine used in the
MiG29s and MiG35s. Since the Indian pilots have received carrier landing
training from the US, a purchase of 25 Super Hornets would be a fair tit
for tat and they could be used on the third aircraft carrier that India
is already building. The US technology could predominate in its naval
aviation and meld smoothly together in its carriers and maritime
surveillance aircraft.
If India chooses to order all Russian aircraft, the US and its aircraft
manufacturers with their short attention span, instant gratification
psyche and the still prevalent Dulles philosophy of “you are either with
us or against us”, will jettison India from their future plans and
strategy. Bad though this is, it could be worse if India signs the
civilian nuclear treaty under the Hyde Act restrictions. Then India will
become a permanent client state of the US with no independent foreign
policy or nuclear deterrent. It will seriously antagonize Russia and
China and will suffer the same recurrent fate as Pakistan, that of
abandonment after a specially contracted Shia marriage, which lasts just
a little longer than the attainment of orgasm by the dominant of the two
parties. In a few months the world will know if India can be coy and
prudent or will it knuckle under and sign a humiliating nuclear deal and
buy only the outdated US planes and cause some other radio Neanderthal
to lose his job for describing India in the words of a rap song!
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