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Random Thoughts
Pragmatic
Foreign, Trade and Military Policy Primer
by
Gaurang Bhatt, MD
India�s foreign policy has vacillated between ideology, delusions of
grandeur and desperate economic, food and military needs. Nehru,
brainwashed by Fabian socialism, a paranoid fear of imperialism and
capitalism, and an erroneous faith in the benign non-threatening
goodness of neighboring nations, who were former victims of colonial
exploitation chose to spend resources on strictly indigenous development
at the cost of military preparedness and created a License Raj, rife
with corruption and bureaucracy. Any sensible leader would have realized
that Pakistan (both East and West) would never live in peace and harmony
with India.
Indira Gandhi, being fully aware of the conflicts with Pakistan in 1948,
1965 and 1971, wasted her advantage to permanently and favorably bring
to conclusion the Kashmir border dispute at the Simla negotiations with
a desperate Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, despite holding 90,000 Pakistani
prisoners of war of a defeated Pakistan. Nehru learnt no lessons from
the Korean War and Cho En Lai�s warning to America not to cross the Yalu
river. China entered the Korean War and fought America to a standstill,
unafraid of America�s arsenal of nuclear weapons. Such an aggressive
China was unlikely to respect colonial borders imposed on it during its
weakest period of history. Past history of good relations, commerce and
bond of Buddhism failed to restrain a communist dictator who had
rejected its own Confucius, disdained all religion and had an
exaggerated sense of self-importance based on its history of being a
preeminent world power for over a millennium. Nehru had to beg for
military help from America and President Kennedy as it did for wheat
under PL480 at other times. America is making the same mistake currently
with Iran.
Rajiv Gandhi foolishly inserted India into the Sri Lanka Civil War and
paid the ultimate price. He had lost the confidence of the electorate
before due to the Bofors scandal. Vajpayee in his Lahore trip and
Manmohan Singh in Cuba at the NAM meeting committed the same folly only
to face Kargil earlier and the Mumbai terror attack recently. India�s
experience with Bangladesh has also failed to teach India�s retarded
leaders anything. The West Pakistani army in 1971, massacred nearly a
million Bangladeshi Muslims and raped their women, and yet Bangladesh
has become friendly enough with Pakistan to serve as a major base for
militant terrorists supported by Pakistan�s ISI, a subsidiary of the
same army that murdered their citizens and raped their women. Swat did
not join Pakistan for nearly two decades after it came into existence
and now is controlled by Taliban extremists. Ethnic and linguistic
similarities are a poor basis for friendly relations with neighbors
obsessed by religion and delusions of grandeur of extinct Islamic
Empires, Rashidan Khalifs and an Ummah superceding nation states.
Afghanistan had a tolerant and Sufi based Islam and now has Taliban,
thanks to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the US.
There is an equally great problem with basing foreign relations simply
because they have a democratic system of government. India and the US
are the world�s largest and second largest (also the first in time)
democracies respectively, but the US is an imperial and neo-colonial
power, determined to dominate the world, by force if necessary, and its
major interests are diametrically opposite to India, a status quo nation
without real imperial ambitions. They may have a few common interests
like keeping sea lanes safely open for commerce and transit of oil, but
that is all. This does not require antagonism, but there is no basis for
suffocating, entangling alliances or a subservient attitude.
Chomsky�s words that nations are not moral agents and Lord Palmerston�s
words that nations have no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent
interests are the best prescriptions to follow. It is also important to
keep in mind that nations are constrained by geography and cannot change
their neighbors and neighborhood. Thus Machiavelli and Chanakya�s rules
of diplomacy hold for ever. The enemy of my enemy is worth cultivating.
Using these principles and previous historical experience, India needs
closer relationship with Israel, Russia, the EU and even Iran, while
mending fences with China and co-operating with America. With rising
Islamic extremism and terrorism that requires neutralization without
armed conflict, Israel, Russia EU and India have common interests. So
does America but its unjust military excursions, torture and
indiscriminate civilian bombing make it an undesirable ally, as even
Obama follows the same policies camouflaged in soothing talk.
India has finally learnt that buying expensive arms without transfer of
technology does nothing to eliminate its dependency. Its joint ventures
like Brahmos, fifth generation fighters, newest submarines including an
indigenous nuclear one, radar, air defense and AWACS with Israel and
Russia, aircraft carriers with Italian assistance are a belated but much
required beginning. Boeing marine reconnaissance planes, Raytheon
missiles are welcome as well, but purchases from the US come with
stifling and onerous restrictions. The experience and expertise of
building the indigenous Tejas aircraft should not be lost or allowed to
become extant, as happened after building submarines with the help of
the German firm HDW was wasted by abandoning the program. Thus the
starting with the drawing board in building a new medium weight
indigenous new fighter with Russian collaboration is a welcome
development to retain and improve newly acquired technical expertise.
Another factor to keep in mind is that the collapse of the US economy
and its tapped out consumers makes India�s dependence on trade with the
US dangerous and unreliable. It maybe years before India�s exports to
the US recover, if at all. Even Japan, Korea and Taiwan, US
protectorates have suffered severely for their dependence and China is
offering Yuan (currency) swaps to Latin America, Southeast Asia and
Africa to wean itself from excessive dependence on trade with the US.
Increasing trade with Southeast Asian nations and Middle Eastern nations
should be India�s top priority. The increased trade should be of
manufactured goods with added value and not grow by selling iron ore and
minerals as with China. Tata�s Nano, Indian scooters and even Tejas
aircrafts could help as would pharmaceuticals, software, specialty
chemicals and healthcare tourism minus illegal organ transplants. All of
these will require trained workers and that cannot be achieved without
good primary education and technical schools.
May 3,
2009
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