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Random Thoughts
Afghanistan � Doomed by Geography
by
Gaurang Bhatt, MD
 Afghanistan is a
landlocked country divided by mountains within, into regions. These
regions have distinct and separate ethnic populations with different
languages. There are no railways and few airports. The roads are poor
and snowbound in the winters. There has never been a prolonged era of a
strong central government in its nearly 200 years of independent
existence. A strong ruler in Kabul like the �Iron Emir� has met with
rebellions in the outer regions. A liberal ruler bent on reform (Amanullah,
his grandson) had to abdicate. Affinities are tribal and local and at
their widest extend to being Pashtun (45%), Tajik (30+%), Uzbek, Hazara,
Turkomen, Baloch (rest). Earlier, the Afghan culture, though Islamic,
was more tolerant. The Carter and Reagan administrations in their
strategy of giving the Soviets their Vietnam, nurtured the fanatic
Islamic mujahideen and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE financed and
provided military and logistic support to the Taliban that led to
sanctuary for Osama Bin Laden and 9-11.
The US, afraid of American casualties, used the Northern Alliance (Tajiks
& Uzbeks) as foot soldiers while providing devastating aerial
bombardment. Drug Lords became our allies and Karzai, a CIA stooge was
made president. He is corrupt, incompetent and ineffective. Afghanistan
does not have enough tax or other revenues to support an effective
police force or army. Thus their pay is insufficient to survive and less
than what Taliban pays to its fighters from drug smuggling and
kidnapping. The police therefore resort to extortion and bribe taking,
making them feared and hated. The farmers in the Pashtun belt take to
poppies to make a living, under coercion by the Taliban with whom they
share religion and ethnicity. Afghans are notoriously xenophobic,
aggressive and prone to shifting alliances for bribes. Dostum, the Uzbek
leader has fought with and against the communists, Soviets, mujahideen
and Taliban
Britain fought three wars against the Afghans and won initially by
superior arms. Of a nearly 17,000 strong garrison after the first wa,r
only one person survived the guerilla warfare with the tribes. Pakistan
was the only real backer on the ground of the Taliban. Shiite Iran was
against them for massacring its diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif. Russia was
against them for spreading Islamic radicalism in its southern Muslim
republics. Uzbekistan and its leader Karimov were against them for their
support of the radical rebel group Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan was against them for an earlier civil war in which they
supported the radical rebels. India was against them as they had given
asylum to the hijackers of the Indian Airlines plane in Afghanistan.
America was against them because of 9-11. Pakistan�s ulterior motive was
to gain strategic depth and use Afghanistan as a safe haven for its
nuclear weapons and to train terrorists to destabilize Kashmir. Pakistan
has a longstanding border dispute with Afghanistan and has as many
Pashtuns on its side of the border as has Afghanistan. Pakistani
Pashtuns have agitated for a Pashtunistan, further fragmenting Pakistan.
It thus tried to develop a common Islamic identity to overcome a
parochial Pashtun one.
Pakistan gave in to the US ultimatum to provide bases to the Americans
to oust the Taliban, but continued its covert support of them even while
receiving massive US aid. The US is now tired of fighting in Afghanistan
and of the horrible Karzai government. It�s real reason for attacking
and controlling Afghanistan was access to Central Asian oil and gas and
erecting pipelines which bypass Russia and relieve the near total
dependence of Europe on Russian gas. This is also why it has a huge base
in Kosovo and declared its independence from Serbia. It is also the
reason for supporting and arming Georgia and trying to give it NATO
membership. Iran, India, Russia and Afghanistan�s neighbors are doing
their damnedest to keep the Taliban out of Afghanistan. Pakistan is
doing the opposite and the US is beginning to shift to the Pakistani
view. The outcome will be further destruction of Afghanistan and with
the fraudulent recent election, the beginning of Afghanistan breakup.
Obama is beholden to his campaign contributors and more interested in
winning re-election than in the good of the country or the common man.
This is why he has kept the Geithners, Summers, Bernankes etc. even
though they were the architects of the American market meltdown The
American public opinion and budget deficits paint the US in to a corner.
A withdrawal means ceding Turkmenistan gas reserves control to Russia. A
brokered agreement with the Taliban is likely to be countered by Russia,
Iran and India. India has given generous aid to the Karzai government
and since he wants to make peace with the Taliban, India as usual, has
been duped by the idiocy of its leaders. The recent revelations by Dr.
Santhanam that India�s hydrogen bomb was a fizzle, proves what liars the
BJP are and how Manmohan Singh sold out India by signing the civil
nuclear agreement.
August 30,
2009
Images under license with
Gettyimages.com
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