The assembly elections results will be out today. The most crucial result will be in Uttar Pradesh. The nature of the government that emerges in UP could affect the future of the government at the centre. The next government in UP might well depend upon how the post poll alignments work out. The hectic moves to that end suggest that the fight to determine the future of the state and even the government at the centre is being fought between the Ambani brothers, Mr. Mukesh Ambani and Mr. Anil Ambani. 

According to assessments by sober political leaders the likely scenario regardless of what poll forecasts might indicate suggests that the BJP could emerge as a king maker in a hung assembly. The party would have the requisite numbers to tilt the balance between the two front runners, Miss Mayawati’s BSP and Mr. Mulayam Singh’s SP. It is in the light of this probability that certain events timed on the eve of the results assume significance.

Congress leader Mr. Beni Prasad Verma is uncharacteristically urging the Congress to tie up with the BSP instead of SP which most Congress leaders wooing the Muslim vote advocate. Mr. Verma was an important leader and lieutenant of Mr. Mulayam Singh whose party is being heavily backed by Mr. Anil Ambani. It is not unreasonable to believe that he was weaned away from Mr. Mulayam Singh after Mr. Mukesh Ambani exerted influence. On the other hand central Minister Mr. Prakash Jaiswal gave veiled threats that President’s rule could be imposed in the state if the outcome of a hung assembly did not suit the Congress.

The CBI probe against Miss Mayawati’s former senior minister Mr. Kushwaha who defected to the BJP after being accused of corruption has recently intensified. If under grilling Mr. Kushwaha were to implicate Miss Mayawati in corruption, the Congress would have a trump card for leverage against Miss Mayawati. But the real icing on the cake emerges from the curious coincidence of Mr. Mukesh Ambani going to Nagpur on March 3 for a discussion and dinner with BJP President Mr. Nitish Gadkari on the day that polling had ended. This has been reported by the Politicsparty website. If this report is correct it would be difficult to imagine that the two gentlemen would have failed to discuss the poll’s outcome. The stakes of the results are high. The hectic moves on the eve of the results indicates that the emergent alignments in UP might well affect the future shape of the UPA government at the centre.