Right now Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi should be feeling on top of the world. He has humbled his opponents in his party. He reigns supreme in the BJP. He is issuing advice to the central government. He struts like a potential prime minister. But this situation may change. Readers might recall that a few days earlier I had cautioned the BJP about allowing Modi to flout discipline in order to preserve the party’s unity on the eve of the impending Gujarat assembly elections. Unity at the cost of discipline, I had warned, might prove costly and self defeating in the long run. I wrote: “At what cost has temporary unity been achieved? The days ahead will reveal that…Perhaps RSS has sacrificed (Sanjay) Joshi for temporary reprieve to confront Modi at a later more suitable time.”

Things are moving even faster than was anticipated. Former chief minister and Modi’s adversary Keshubhai Patel has not wasted time. He has cobbled together the disgruntled BJP elements opposed to Modi in order to counter him during the polls. These include the former chief minister Suresh Mehta and several former ministers and powerful leaders. Significantly among them is also RSS leader Bhaskarrao Damle. Would Damle have been defying the RSS to attend the meeting? The former minister for home Gordhan Jhadafiya dispelled all confusion on this score by stating: “We may belong to any political party, but at the end of the day we are all swayamsewaks of the RSS.” Keshubhai Patel is not only a senior RSS hand. He is the leader of the powerful and influential Patel community in Gujarat. Many members of this community from the Congress party will also be lending a hand to his endeavor. 

Should this development worry Modi? Well, his supporters have started to circulate an old Wikileaks cable of 2005 ridiculing Keshubhai Patel. That will have little or no impact on voters in the current context. But its circulation betrays a trace of nervousness in the Modi camp. So will the Keshubhai group succeed in defeating Modi? Very likely not. But will it succeed in derailing him to significantly reduce his majority. Very likely it will. That is what would most suit the RSS. Without losing grip of the Gujarat government it would strive for weakening Modi to the extent of compelling him to accommodate opponents. In the event, would he oblige? That remains uncertain. That is why commenting earlier on the expediency displayed by RSS in flouting discipline in order to retain unity I wrote: “Such rationalization and compromise never delivers good results.”

Modi has displayed a basic flaw that argues against his continued success. He ignores the old and useful adage: always leave your enemy a line of retreat. Even a cornered mouse can turn into a dangerous rat. Modi’s approach may suit dictatorial regimes. In democratic politics the ability to accommodate opponents and rivals and knowing the appropriate time to do so is is an invaluable asset. Until now Modi has given no indication of displaying this quality. Events may compel him to accommodate his rivals. It would serve him and his party much better if that were done before the Gujarat poll than after it. Would Modi attempt that or would he prove too brittle? The next few months will reveal that and the fortunes of Narendra Modi post the Gujarat poll. The RSS may well regret its decision to ignore discipline for the sake of maintaining the BJP’s unity.