Analysis
The Brotherhood of Egypt
The Election of Mohamed Morsi as the first civilian President of Egypt would be a landmark in the changes which are going to come in Egypt and the Middle East. This is the victory of the power of the street or rather power of the Square. The Muslim Brotherhood, a well oiled organisation had been yearning for power since 1928 ,the year it was formed. It is like a purana chawl, seasoned and mature, which will now spread its Islamic flavour and aroma in the Middle East. It has one of the best leadership line up who are politically skillful, literate and strategically mature.
Mr. Morsi is himself a Ph.D from USA and his two sons are reported to be US citizens. But that does not mean that he will be a democratic leader, equally amenable to secularists liberals, women or Coptic Christians who form about 10% of the population of the country. Muslim Brotherhood does not understand democracy. They will usher in Islamic fundamentalism, not gradually but sooner than later.
The wide claims of Mr. Morsi to include people from other walks of life into his Cabinet would remain a pipe dream after sometime. This would only be a prop to fight the Army till it is purged by various ways of wooeing and buying till it becomes an eyesore in the eyes of the people. The gentle Islamic rule of Turkey where the Army strongmen were broken and silenced is an example which Muslim Brotherhood would like to follow.
The Brotherhood would like to follow the saying of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the wily Turkish Prime Minster that Democracy is like a street car, you have to get down when your stop comes.The stop for the Army is not far off. Mr. Mohamed Morsi is only a Mukhota of the power of Brotherhood. The hard liners are waiting for an opportunity to come to the fore. The liberals, the secularists and the US which is consoling itself with a wishful thought that Brotherhood will show the right governance,are living in a false world. The Brotherhood would like to solve all their problems through the Islamic way and these optimists named above would soon find that they are just redundant.
The US and the Western world have now lost their hold in the Arab world barring a few countries which are ruled by the Arab royalty. The US lost its opportunity when it could not read the writing on the wall in the Hosni Mubarak days. Had it forced Mubarak to abdicate the power somewhere in 2006-2009, it would have saved Egypt going into the arms of Brotherhood.
The US has never been able to read anything which is not written in american english. Inspite of President Obama starting his Arab journey from Cairo, he enjoys only 20% goodwill in that country. The Brotherhood would not ditch USA immediately. It will milch USA till nothing is left in the hormonal udders of its munificence and US inspite of brave talks is no more a sagacious and strong power.
The Brotherhood's coming to power does not augur well for Israel and for the 1979 treaty with Egypt. The Israeli sharemarket got a shock on the day Mr. Morsi was declared elected. Now is the dawn of the Hamas's belligerence. The Sinai belt would see more of noise and thunder of the guns and bombs. The Brotherhood would not like to be a pariah in the eyes of the Salafists especially when winds of Islamism are uprooting all citadels of dictatorships/Kings in the Middle East.
Turkey andy Iran are trying to gain a bigger role in the Islamic world of the Middle East by playing the tunes of fundamentalism. Can Egypt remain far behind. The Brotherhood cannot afford that complacency despite wishful thinking of the American Secretary of the State and its half blind policy makers.
27-Jun-2012
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Suresh Mandan
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