Events are moving on course in Gujarat . Immediately after Gujarat Chief Minister Mr. Narendra Modi bullied BJP President Mr. Nitin Gadkari at the party’s Mumbai meeting and compelled him to divest Mr. Sanjay Joshi of all responsibilities in the party, it was pointed out in these columns that Mr. Modi might be inviting a decline of fortunes.

The positive gains emanating from his popularity in his state due to efficient administration could be offset by arrogance and failure to accommodate rivals within the party. Attention was drawn to the potential trouble that could arise from the exertions of former Chief Minister Mr. Keshubhai Patel and other party dissidents in the Gujarat BJP. 

Mr. Keshubhai has quit the BJP and formed his own party. Other disgruntled elements ranged against Mr. Modi such as Mr. Kashiram Rana have joined him. An earlier splinter group led by Mr. Gordhan Zadaphia will also join him. It will not surprise if eventually Mr. Shankarsinh Vaghela a former BJP stalwart who defected to Congress and now heads that party’s Gujarat unit might also quit Congress and join forces. Mr. Vaghela has already expressed resentment over the manner in which the Congress is approaching the assembly poll scheduled for December. Mr. Vaghela, also a former BJP Chief Minister of Gujarat, is a staunch opponent of Mr. Modi.

So what are the poll prospects in Gujarat ?

Much will depend upon how the RSS cadres in the state respond. The manner in which the BJP central leadership could not respond to Mr. Patel’s complaints and had earlier meekly allowed the humiliation of party loyalist Mr. Sanjay Joshi suggests that the RSS advised Mr. Gadkari to play ball with Mr. Modi. Modi is too powerful within the Sangh Parivar’s own ranks to allow immediate rebuff. Also, the RSS would in no way like to lose the crucial Gujarat state to Congress. Mr. Modi became the proverbial fishbone stuck in the RSS gullet. He could not be swallowed and he could not be ejected. That is why it appears that a calibrated approach might be attempted.

Ideally the RSS would like a poll result which does not outright defeat Mr. Modi but weakens him sufficiently to compel his rapprochement with former rivals. 
 
It had been written on May 31, 2012:

“Will the Keshubhai group succeed in defeating Modi? Very likely not. But will it succeed in derailing him to significantly reduce his majority? Very likely it will. That is what would most suit the RSS. Without losing grip of the Gujarat government it would strive for weakening Modi to the extent of compelling him to accommodate opponents.”

What chances does Mr. Keshubhai have of achieving this scenario?

Much will depend upon how the new party maps out its strategy. Mr. Keshubhai is the most influential leader of the powerful Patel community and also heads affairs of the Somnath Temple.  The Muslim community despite Mr. Modi’s strenuous efforts to win it over has not yet been convinced. The Congress appears incapable of denting Mr. Modi. In the prevailing context Mr. Keshubhai does not appear to be an unattractive option for the Muslims. Were he to adopt an imaginative agenda he could conceivably forge a formidable Patel-Muslim alliance that could help him overtake Congress. The key to the new party’s future might well be its success in approaching the minorities. A spectacular breakthrough in reaching out to the minorities might even deny BJP absolute majority. That is the aspect which needs to be watched in the days before the polls.