Aam Admi Party (AAP) can act as the catalyst to introduce a new political dispensation that rules India and changes its political culture and agenda. That is what the recent assembly poll results portend. Consider broadly first how the results affect the main political players in the arena. Consider next future prospects and opportunities for each party. Finally assess what can be accomplished in the 2014 general election provided the cards are played right.

Historically the most important trend from these results is that the Congress is on the path of irreversible decline. This defeat is unlike earlier defeats after which the Congress revived. The current context in which the setback occurred has changed. A demographic change has created a vast constituency uncommitted to past political icons and committed to a new political culture. Added to this is the decline of the influence that the ruling Congress dynasty exerts on public opinion.

As pointed our earlier in these columns the Congress can no longer revive but can assure a future only by reinventing itself as the Indian Federal Congress that ideologically differs from the Indian National Congress. The time for achieving that seems long past. Given the current trend the Congress will continue to decline, disintegrate and eventually disappear. Only a miracle can alter this trend. That is why the many existing talented Congress leaders would be well advised to choose one or the other option indicated further down in this essay.

BJP leaders are flashing victory signs after the poll results. They are whistling in the dark. The results puncture their assumptions.

There were two factors working for the BJP in these polls. First, there was an unprecedented anti-incumbency wave against the Congress due largely to the central government, further augmented by the performance of Congress chief ministers. The BJP cashed in on that. Secondly, there was the Modi factor. It has not worked as the BJP claimed. Mr. Modi’s main contribution was to unify and inspire the BJP cadres. That helped the party to consolidate its traditional votes. But until now Modi has signally failed to demonstrate his ability to widen the party’s base or translate his mega rallies into votes. The unprecedented volume of resources, the huge mobilized crowds, the blatant, widespread and never seen before endorsement extended by foreign powers, the mobile band of the same cheerleaders chanting at different rally venues, the gushing mainstream media serving the corporate sector – all these failed to convert into votes.

It was pointed out in these columns that Modi’s mega rallies in Himachal Pradesh assembly polls and the Karnataka by-polls failed to bring electoral success. In relation to the current assembly polls this writer pointed out in these columns on September 9, 2013:

“In November all the BJP units (with reference to Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh) going to the polls are expected to comfortably win with or without Mr. Modi’s support. Except the Delhi assembly election in which the BJP sits in opposition. Delhi therefore will test in November how far Mr. Modi’s perceived charisma can deliver results. That is why perhaps Mr. Advani and Mrs. Swaraj want to delay Mr. Modi’s candidature as next PM till after the November poll. If BJP cannot win Delhi there could be serious rethinking and the party would need a prime ministerial candidate acceptable to potential allies who would be badly needed.”

Well, the BJP fared as expected in Madhya Pradesh, fared less than expected in Chhatisgarh, and won a thumping victory in Rajasthan. The Rajasthan victory may be credited to Mr. Modi’s unifying effect on BJP cadres which helped Mrs. Vasundhara Raje to resurface, and to the strong anti-incumbency wave against both the Union government and the State government. What is worth noting is that in all these states the anti-Congress factor worked because it was a straight contest between BJP and Congress. Only in Delhi a fledgling challenger as the Aam Admi Party broke this pattern. And the BJP failed to obtain a clear majority! Therefore the BJP needs to think.

By asserting that the Modi magic did not work because this was not a parliamentary election the BJP leaders are deceiving themselves. No single leader can drastically alter electoral results. TV anchors and media analysts betray their ignorance about political ground realities by asserting that Indira Gandhi succeeded to do this. This is not the time or space to expand on this aspect but Indira Gandhi’s victory in 1971 and revival in 1980 were based heavily on the consolidation or division of vote banks and nothing else. She never created a wave, not even in the 1971 poll where Congress won a huge tally. There was covert support by the pro-American elements, unknown to the pro-Soviet parties rooting for her, which brought her victory. In conclusion therefore, the BJP can be thankful that Mr. Modi has consolidated its traditional base. The party now needs to widen it. That can be done not by any single leader, however charismatic, but by adopting the appropriate agenda for which the nation is waiting.

Finally, consider prospects of the AAP. Its youthful leaders with the future before them will be tempted to attempt a grass roots effort across the nation. That will take years to succeed. And in the critical situation facing the nation India cannot afford to wait. Also, it is time to appreciate that the behavioral decline of current political parties is caused by the prevalent political system and culture. Already AAP leaders must have learnt that the compulsions of practical politics can lead even well intentioned individuals to slip. To be realistic AAP leaders must recognize therefore that an entire class of people cannot be replaced, but any class of people can be reformed. Nobody should be considered untouchable provided there is unflinching commitment to the party’s agenda and to total future probity. Therefore the following steps are suggested for AAP leaders.

First, after succeeding in making a mark in state elections through local issues it is time now for AAP to formulate its national agenda to reform the political system that might address the aspirations of young India . Secondly, selecting the key measures for fundamental systemic reform from its agenda the party must launch a nationwide movement to propagate it. Thirdly, the party should take the initiative to host a meeting of likeminded regional parties to discuss and approve the agenda. Finally, the party should cooperate with other likeminded regional parties to form a federal party that contests parliamentary elections under one symbol to usher genuine federalism in the nation.

The future lies in the emergence of a two-party system between the proposed federal party reflecting systemic reform and decentralization of power, and a strong centralized party led by someone like Mr. Modi. Congress leaders would be advised to join one party or the other. All new Congress MLAs in Delhi should join BJP. That would avoid another poll and initiate political realignment. It is time to honour the last wish of Mahatma Gandhi to dissolve the Congress as an electoral party. The ensuing contest would be interesting. By a rough reckoning the total number of seats represented by states where the Congress and BJP are in government or are the main challenge number around 325. The total number of seats where regional parties are in government or are the main challenge are around 390. There is overlapping in some states as in Andhra, Maharashtra and Punjab . But this seems the broad situation. The contest therefore would be open. Any side could win provided of course that the national parties and the regional parties including the AAP adopt this approach.