Recently, the largest democracy in the world, Bharat, more commonly known as India worldwide, has undergone through the electoral process to elect members (lawmakers) for the Lok Sabha (Lower House of the Parliament). General elections were held in seven distinct phases from 19 April to 01 June 2024 to seek franchise for 543 Lok Sabha seats. The counting of votes was carried out on 04 June, the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) informed the President Droupadi Murmu on 07 June their desire to form government claiming the support of 293 newly elected members of Parliament, and in turn, the President invited him to take oath on 09 June to constitute the government for the 18th Lok Sabha. The occasion marked Mr. Modi taking the oath as prime minister for the consecutive third time since May 2014 to form a coalition government with two major allies, namely the Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (United) of Bihar, along with several other smaller coalition partners.

However, the results of the elections show a significant variation from what has been forecast in the electronic and print media as also political analysis by the experts nationally and internationally for the several months preceding the Lok Sabha poll. It is difficult to conclude if it was more of a psychological strategy and mind game of the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) high command or real expectations or aspirations-based party calculations when they gave a pre-poll slogan “abki baar, char sau paar (this time, more than four hundred)” and maintained its pace aggressively through the poll process. Even the majority of exit-poll surveys endorsed this thesis at the end of the last phase of elections on 1st June 2024. However, the end results were very different with major surprise and shock from the electorate especially in some of the crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bengal. The BJP could not achieve even absolute majority unlike the last two elections in 2014 and 2019, the only saving grace was that Mr. Modi succeeded in forming the third consecutive NDA government with the support of allies.

The Electoral Verdict

During the current poll process, of the total population of about 1400 million people, nearly 968 million people were eligible to vote that constitutes over 69% of the total population. Of this, about 642 million adult voters exercised their right of franchise with the women constituting approximately 312 million (48.6%) of the total voters. For the records sake, this was the largest ever election held in terms of numbers, deployment of the election manpower and machinery and expenditure spanned over the nearly one and a-half months across the length and breadth of the country. Simultaneously, the legislative assembly elections were also carried out for the states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim as also by-elections for 25 constituencies in a total of 12 state legislative assemblies. The direct contest for the Lok Sabha elections was between two fronts of coalition political parties: The NDA led by the BJP, a coalition of some 30 plus regional parties, with the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Janta Dal (United) in Bihar as major allies, while the I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), a loosely held coalition of 28 parties, with the Congress in lead and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Dravida Munnetra Kazagam in Tamil Nadu and All India Trinmool Congress in West Bengal as crucial regional partners.

The BJP and Congress are two national parties with their presence in most parts of the country with a sizeable electoral base. The ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) released its national election manifesto on 14 April 2024 and named it as "Sankalp Patra", while the Congress had earlier declared their manifesto on 04 April 2024 calling it the "Nyay Patra". The Congress Nyay Patra was characterized with the scathing attacks on the BJP and the incumbent Prime Minister with the allegations of spreading hate, fear, mismanagement and violation of the Constitution thereby promising the reversal of the NDA policies, doubling the economic progress and removing poverty with free disbursement of Rs one lakh to each poor family under ‘Mahalaxmi’ scheme. The BJP Sankalp Patra recounted a number of measures already taken for the Vikas (development) and Virasat (heritage) of the nation during the last ten years of their reign highlighting the schemes and programmes as envisaged along with the targets and timeframe (quantified in many cases) for the inclusive growth and development of the country during the next five years and beyond. Contrary to the Congress criticism, the BJP manifesto did not make any reference to their arch rival Congress. 

During electoral campaign, the BJP and allies regularly kept talking about the socio-economic development and progress of the country led by Mr. Narendra Modi, with the former occasionally raising the cultural and religious rights of the Hindu population. On the contrary, the Congress and allies emphasized on the welfare of the minority population and economic parity through wealth redistribution with the focus on the Muslims, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and SCs/STs. In the aforesaid context, two promises of the Congress viz. 1) the freedom of the choice of dress, food, language and personal laws, and 2) addressal of the inequality of wealth and income by changes in policies through caste census, financial and institutional surveys, might prove divisive and disastrous for the security, integrity and oneness of the country. On many occasions, the top Congress leadership aggressively spoke about carrying out an X-ray of India to ascertain the population of various caste groups as also a financial & institutional survey with an aim of the redistribution of wealth. The election results declared on 4 June 2024 show the following position.

The NDA led by Narendra Modi obtained an absolute majority with 293 seats of the total Lok Sabha seats 543 but with the following remarkable difference. In 2014, the NDA had won a total of 336 seats with the BJP alone garnering 282 seats, suffice to form the government even without support of its allies.  The same feat was repeated in 2019 general elections with further improvement in that the NDA won 352 seats with the BJP alone winning 303 seats. With this numerical strength, the Modi government was able to take several bold political decisions too such as abrogation of the Article 370, abolition of triple talaq among Muslims and the amendment of the Citizen Act to pave way for granting Indian citizenship to thousands of refugees from the neighbouring Islamic countries, majority of them as Hindus and Sikhs, besides implementing several socio-economic reforms. The outcome of the recent elections was a dampener in the sense that the NDA received significantly less number of seats, so also the BJP too, compared to what had been predicted by various opinion and exit polls.

The alliance lost 59 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP 63 compared to the 2019 general elections. Nonetheless, as already referred to earlier, Narendra Modi confirmed the support of 293 MPs to President Droupadi Murmu and he was sworn in as prime minister for the third consecutive term by the latter on 9 July 2024 heading a coalition government in true sense for the first time with the Telugu Desam Party and Janta Dal (United) as two major allies. On the other hand, the opposition I.N.D.I. Alliance too considerably improved their tally of MPs to 234 seats, of which the Congress alone secured 99 seats. Seven independent MPs and ten MPs from the non-aligned parties also registered victories in election. The opposition alliance has been projecting it as their victory and moral defeat of the BJP since the results were declared on 4 June, and some political analysts define it as the NDA victory that sounds like a defeat. In the following paragraphs, the author proposes to briefly analyze the so-stated debacle of the NDA and BJP.

Poor Performance in Key States & Reasons Therefor

After independence, the Indian National Congress by and large dominated the Indian political scenario more or less for five decades with their ample presence and support for them in the most of the Indian states. This scenario started gradually changing in late 1980s onwards with the advent of regional parties in various parts due to dissatisfaction with the Congress as also internal discontent among various factions and consequent breakage within the Congress itself forming many socialist parties. Till then, sans 1977 Janta Dal experiment following the 1975 Emergency imposed by late Indira Gandhi, the Congress monopoly was largely maintained in the country. Some of the states such as Uttar Pradesh (then 85, now 80), Bihar (then 54, now 40), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), etc. returning a large number MPs in the Lok Sabha have played a crucial role for securing a majority in the Parliament. This trend has continued till date and it is very difficult for any political party/alliance to obtain absolute majority without performing well in these states.

The BJP had attained absolute majority of their own in 2014 and 2019 general elections with 282 and 303 Lok Sabha seats respectively as they had performed very well at least in three of these four states. In 2014 general elections, the BJP won 22 seats (NDA 31) in Bihar, 23 seats (NDA 42) in Maharashtra, and 71 seats (NDA 73) in Uttar Pradesh, but only 2 seats in West Bengal. In 2019, the BJP won 17 seats (NDA 39) in Bihar, 23 seats (NDA 41) in Maharashtra, 64 seats (NDA 64) in Uttar Pradesh, and fairly well 18 seats in West Bengal too. They received only two seats in West Bengal but did exceptionally well in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra in 2014 to compensate it. With some of the states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, etc., consistently doing well for the BJP, the party could reach a tally of 240 seats in 2024 despite major setback in UP with 38 seats less compared to 2014, and considerably reduced numbers in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and West Bengal. The BJP is often blamed by the opposition of playing the Hindutva card and Ram Janmbhumi Temple issue, the party’s setback at the Faizabad constituency has been exploited to the maximum by the opposition; hence it may be quite reasonable and fair to first analyze the BJP’s loss there.

(1)  Loss In Faizabad (Ayodhya)

The Faizabad parliamentary constituency was won by Awadhesh Prasad, a dalit candidate fielded by the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh defeating the sitting MP Lallu Singh by a margin of over fifty-four thousand votes. Since the independence, barring few exceptions this seat has traditionally remained with the Congress and other communist/socialist parties. Lallu Singh had been elected on the previous occasion in 2019 from this constituency by a margin of about sixty-five thousand defeating Anand Sen Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, and for the Lok Sabha election in the populous states like Uttar Pradesh, such margins of votes are not considered very comfortable majority. Ever since his election, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have been using Awadhesh Prasad like a poster boy in the parliament and outside citing that the BJP’s communal agenda has failed and Hindus have not supported it even in Ayodhya despite the construction of the Ram Janmbhumi Temple by the BJP.

Whatever the opposition parties argue, let’s have a look at the factual position of the Faizabad constituency. Prasad and his party argued that the transformation of Ayodhya in the run-up to the Ram temple consecration incurred serious difficulties and inconvenience to its residents, such as non-payment or less payment of compensation, dislocation of families without satisfactory rehabilitation, heavy barricading and police presence, traffic diversions, and recurring bureaucratic dominance and arrogance. Consequently, the dissatisfied and angry people overwhelmingly supported the Samajwadi candidate rejecting the BJP in Ayodhya. On the contrary, the Ayodhya district administration categorically denied such allegations stating that a total of Rs 1,253 crore was paid as compensation to residents affected by the various construction works for the development of the Ayodhya Dham. In fact, they publicly shared complete details of the shopkeepers wholly or partially affected, ex-gratia amount and compensation given and people rehabilitated owing to the beautification and widening of Rampath, Bhaktipath, Ram Janmabhoomi Path, Panchkosi and Chaudahkosi Parikrama Marg. Several shopkeepers too were shown on camera by various news channels expressing overall satisfaction with the compensation and administration.

It may not be out of context to mention the position of the adjacent Barabanki Lok Sabha constituency in historical perspective. Traditionally, this seat has been reserved for the Dalit/OBC candidates since independence and so for the BJP has won here only on three occasions, once in 1998 and twice on the last two occasions during the Modi wave. In a reorganization of the constituencies, Dariyabad and Rudauli Vidhan Sabha segments were merged with the neighbouring Faizabad constituency. The estimated population of the Dalits, Muslims and Yadavs in Faizabad is 26%, 14% and 12% respectively. It is a well-known fact that the factors of caste and religion play a very important role in the Indian electoral process, more so in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Currently, Ayodhya is only an assembly segment of the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency comprising of five assembly segments namely Ayodhya, Bikapur, Dariyabad, Milkipur and Rudauli. As can be seen from the following table, the BJP contestant actually had a lead of four thousand plus over the Samajwadi candidate in Ayodhya but the latter substantially scored over the former in the remaining four assembly segments to record a victory by over fifty-four thousand votes.

Party                        Ayodhya      Bikapur      Dariyabad     Milkipur     Rudauli      Total
Samajwadi Party       1,00,004        1,22,543      1,31,277         95,612         1,04,113      5,53,549
Bhartiya Janta Party  1,04,671           92,859      1,21,183          87,879           92,410      4,99,002

The Samajwadi Party candidate already had the benefit of the consolidation of all factions of the I.N.D.I. Alliance and the party consciously chose a Dalit candidate to attract so motivated voters forming a major chunk. As is apparent from the overall performance of the BJP at the national level after two terms (10 years) of the NDA governance under the brand Modi, incumbency factor too played an important role during the current elections. It’s a worldwide phenomenon that any party or leader has been seldom returned by the electorate for the consecutive third term. Apart from the caste/religion and incumbency factors, the BJP candidate Lallu Singh made a serious mistake in making a public statement that the party needed more than four hundred seats to amend the Constitution for good. The opposition promptly picked up this jumla (phrase) in successfully altering to a narrative that if the BJP is returned to power this time, they will abolish reservation quota of SCs/STs/OBCs in jobs and institutions. This tactical Faultline caused serious damage to the prospects of the BJP/NDA not only in Faizabad but also in Uttar Pradesh and countrywide.

The BJP failed to repeat their 2014 or 2019 performance in Uttar Pradesh despite much hype caused by some of their party leaders and media in their opinion and exit polls. The party was restricted to just 33 seats, a loss of 38 seats if compared to 2014 and 31 seats compared to 2019 general elections. Had this fiasco not occurred in Uttar Pradesh alone, the BJP could have comfortably reached the magic figure of 272 to achieve absolute majority of their own. Together with the unanticipated losses in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Rajasthan, the party that aimed to considerably improve their 2019 tally of the Lok Sabha seats, actually fell short of 32 seats to achieve full majority in the parliament thus relying upon the regional allies like the TDP, JD(U) and others to form the government at the Centre. Thus, although the BJP succeeded to constitute the government but the Lok Sabha elections undoubtedly were a serious setback to the party, and ever since they are still working to analyze the reasons for the setback in the states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra with the state assembly elections due in Maharashtra and some other states in near future.

(2)  Losses in Key States, including Uttar Pradesh & Maharashtra

While the state of Uttar Pradesh carries the maximum Lok Sabha seats of 80, it is indeed a crucial state in the politics at the national level. Undoubtedly, apart from the issues cited in the foregoing factors carrying a broad implication, the factors like unemployment, poverty and inflation would indeed play some role. The way breakage and consequent political turmoil took place in the state of Maharashtra in the parties like Shiv Sena Party and the Nationalist Congress Party, this was not appreciated by many well-meaning and neutral voters in the country. In many cases, several dissidents and deserters from other parties, particularly the Congress, joined the BJP and they were given priority in allocating party tickets. A majority of them did not fare well in elections besides causing heart-burn and demoralizing effect to a large number of otherwise dedicated BJP office bearers and supporters at the ground level. Final results in Maharashtra present a classic example while the party suffered in other states too on this account.

Ever since a lot of brainstorming and serious reviews has been carried out within the BJP, besides inputs from other independent sources. Accordingly, some of the more significant probable reasons behind the poor performance of the BJP, and NDA in general, at elections in certain states, and chiefly Uttar Pradesh, are listed as follows:

• There was public dissatisfaction with the sitting MPs having already won two or more terms. Besides, the conduct of certain MPs was also inappropriate causing general annoyance in public. These factors further aggravated anti-incumbency leading to party losses.
   
• State level recommendations were ignored in many cases by the central leadership in the context of denying tickets to unpopular candidates, priority to newly joined members from other parties and change of candidates in many cases. It is generally perceived now that the outcome would have been better if such recommendations were accepted.
   
• A narrative was aggressively built by the opposition about change of the Constitution eliminating the quota of the Dalits and OBCs and the BJP could not effectively counter this disinformation. Consequently, a large number of particularly Dalit voters drifted to the opposition parties.
   
• In several Lok Sabha constituencies, a considerable gap in coordination was observed between the sitting MLAs and the nominated BJP candidate for the constituency. This lack of support and proper canvassing led to defeat of the official candidates.
   
• At several places, the party cadre and party workers felt ignored by the leadership. This, and reportedly, in some constituencies, the nominated candidates have such a poor image that the local BJP leaders and party workers did not come out wholeheartedly of their homes to campaign for the candidates. Such neglect became a major issue in many cases and the disappointed and indifferent workers did not vote or mobilize others to vote for the party.
   
• The disinformation machinery of the opposition parties dominated and succeeded in several pockets where the BJP leaders and workers could not effectively counter the former’s narratives: for instance, the Agniveer Scheme in Army, Examination Paper Leak, etc.
   
• A large number of constituencies in the states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, etc. now have a sizeable strength of minority population (mainly Muslims) with a potential to determine the fate of candidates. Such minority, despite reaping full benefits of the developmental schemes of the NDA government in last ten years, overwhelmingly voted against the BJP and NDA candidates in almost all constituencies.
   
• Assurances for the distribution of freebies, payment of Rs one lakh annually (@8,500/-p.m.) and misleading narrative of the caste census and redistribution of wealth by the Congress too had its considerable impact on voters. This is also evident from the fact that long queues of women, particularly belonging to the minority population, to collect monthly assured money were seen at the district Congress Party offices at many places across the country after the election.

The end result was that the BJP got just 240 seats with alliance’s total tally of 293 seats while they had aggressively pitched for a national tally of 400 plus seats, expecting and improvement over their previous best of 2019 at 352. The position would have been worse provided the BJP had not made nearly clean sweep in the states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Delhi; the states of Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Uttarakhand, etc. were also helpful.

Major Take Away from Fragmented Mandate

The post-election scenario clearly indicates that although Narendra Modi succeeded in forming the government at the Centre for the Alliance but their ambitious slogan "Ab ki baar, 400 paar" targeting for over 400 seats for the NDA alliance has backfired. This is the reason why some analysts and sceptics hold that this NDA victory actually sounds like a defeat. The poll verdict also marked a surprising revival of the Congress with 99 seats in sharp contrast to various opinion and exit polls i.e. pre- and post-election surveys. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party with MPs tally more than the total seats earned by the combined opposition, the pre-poll hype and expectations have rendered the leaders and supporters quite disheartened. On their part, Rahul Gandhi and Akhilish Yadav have not only successfully forged a coalition of the Congress and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh but together they are also calling shots in the newly constituted 18th Lok Sabha.

Although still a rather loose assembly with conflicting interests in different states, the I.N.D.I. Alliance appears to be upbeat that together they can defeat the BJP by stopping the splitting of votes. With the assembly elections due this year in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana as also states of Bihar and Delhi next in line, the opposition may pose a tough competition and challenge to the BJP and NDA alliance. In this author’s opinion, the following are three major takeaways responsible for the ruling alliance’s setback in the recently concluded general election, for which they will have to adopt an effective strategy and action to consolidate their position and stay in power.

(a)  Anti-incumbency

Anti-incumbency is a worldwide phenomenon and it would seldom occur that a political party or leader is returned to power for the consecutive third term. In India itself, the late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru could attain this feat in 1962 when there was not much challenge to the Congress at the national level and electorate too was not so aware and demanding. In the instant case, the multiple independent periodical surveys and opinion polls constantly reflected the BJP in comfortable position under the popular leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Consequently, the overzealous and confident BJP could not gauze anti-incumbency in the states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana owing to multiple factors cited in previous paragraphs. For illustration, the largest setback came from Uttar Pradesh and Haryana owing to the consolidation of the Dalit and Jat voters in favour of the I.N.D.I. Allaince with most of the Yadav and Muslim votes already in their pocket, thanks to the constant misinformation by the opposition including the change of the Constitution.

(b) Misinformation Based Opposition Narratives

In a vastly overpopulated country like India, the issues like poverty, inflation, employment, public health and welfare schemes have always been a subject of concern. However, the BJP in their earlier stint with the late Prime Minister AB Vajpayee (2000-04) and last ten years under Narendra Modi have done exceedingly well on these accounts if compared to various Congress or Congress supported regimes in the past. During the canvassing for the recently concluded elections, the opposition parties constantly raised these issues as if the NDA government has completely failed to tackle these problems. The congress aggressively came with a narrative in several election meetings and public gatherings about conducting a caste census and financial survey across the country to redistribute wealth on a proportionate basis – a dangerous divisive agenda for the nation compelling voters to rethink about their choices. The Congress scheme of the payment of Rs. 8,500/- to an elderly woman of each (poor) family continued to create confusion even after the election. Perhaps the most damaging impact came with the opposition aggressively circulating misinformation that the Modi government will deprive Dalits and OBCs of their reservation quota by destroying the Constitution, if the BJP is voted in power. The BJP could not effectively counter the Opposition's claim about the Constitution that started with an inane statement made by Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency BJP candidate Lallu Singh.

 (c)  Management of Minority Voters

The minorities, mainly Muslims, have a substantial population of over 20% in the country. The Muslim electorate has a potential for playing a decisive role in the dozens of the Lok sabha constituencies across the country, more particularly in the states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Bihar. During the last ten years of the NDA, the benefits of various social welfare schemes have been extended to all eligible population without any discrimination by caste and religion. In fact, the official data released for various welfare schemes from time to time on housing, sanitation, rasoi gas, public health, free rations, etc., clearly suggest that among the total beneficiaries, the Muslims constitute about 30 to 35 percent recipients (against about 15% population). Notwithstanding this, a malicious narrative was constantly escalated nationally and internationally by the vested interests that the BJP and Mr. Modi, with their Hindutva agenda, are constantly engaged in marginalizing Muslims in India. Although this could be cited as the failure of the BJP to convince the Muslim electorate and the latter’s consolidation in favour of the opposition alliance, the fact is the majority Muslims put their religion above all other considerations.

Conclusion

The election verdict for the 18th Lok Sabha indicates that Prime Minister Modi has lost some shine, a reminder that even Brand Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency and misinformation; besides the party still needs a learning to deal with a section not amenable to any amount of goodwill and welfare when it comes to religion. The last ten years’ governance in India had made many political experts and analysts to start believing that this country is heading for a one-party dominant oligarchy with another over hundred years old strong political establishment gradually fading to oblivion. What made them to believe so were the developments like the emergence of a charismatic leadership in BJP, a strong and sturdy organizational machinery, an unmatched control over the resources and communication tools, one-party dominant system and lack of a viable opposition in foresight.

The most remarkable outcome of the elections is the return to an era of the coalition politics. The previous two decades had seen a chaotic socio-political order due to the compulsions of the coalition governments. The 1990s were characterized with many weak and unstable governments, mid-term elections and their control by proxy; then the previous two UPA regimes had a prime minister who had to work under the influence of an extra-constitutional political framework in the name of the National Advisory Council. The last ten years saw a stable government under Mr. Modi, the hope for continuity, a clear roadmap for the country’s development and progress with a tenable indigenization effort, and multiple and efficient welfare schemes. All this led to a considerable augmentation of India’s credibility and global image building but now we have to wait and see how Modi government would sail out with the coalition politics and associated compulsions to deal with the developmental challenges and the current Bhartiya civilizational (cultural) crisis.