A Battle Between Rising Powers & the Established World Order

What happens when a rising power threatens the dominance of an established empire? This question echoes through history, shaping geopolitical landscapes and wars. On August 15, 2024, Prime Minister Modi, from the Red Fort, hinted at a complex global phenomenon known as the Thucydides Trap, underscoring its relevance to India's growing power.

Originating from ancient Greece, the "Thucydides Trap" was first described by historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens. According to him, the war was inevitable because Athens' rise threatened Sparta's supremacy. Harvard scholar Graham Allison, in his book Destined for War, revived this concept, explaining how a rising power challenging the dominant one often leads to conflict. Of the 16 cases over the last 500 years where such rivalries have occurred, 12 resulted in wars.

But is war always inevitable? The Thucydides Trap warns that rising powers like China or India could clash with established giants like the United States. However, the outcomes don't always have to be catastrophic. The modern world presents avenues to manage this tension, but examples abound that show the real risks.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Modern Example?

Take the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. It’s not just a territorial conflict but also part of a broader strategy to curb Russia's influence and prevent it from reshaping global power dynamics. The West's support for Ukraine reflects a deeper fear: allowing Russia to gain traction risks altering the current world order, dominated largely by Western powers. The prolongation of this conflict illustrates how established powers deploy indirect means to counter emerging threats.

India & China: A Global Balancing Act

India, too, finds itself at the cusp of this geopolitical challenge. As a rising superpower with increasing economic clout and geopolitical influence, India’s growth is viewed with caution by traditional global players like the United States and China. While the U.S. might outwardly support India's rise to counter China, the deeper reality is a delicate balancing act. Historically, countries like the U.S. have not hesitated to intervene in situations where their dominance has been threatened.

China's rapid ascent in global technology and military strength presents another example. The tensions in the South China Sea, trade wars with the U.S., and frequent skirmishes at the India-China border underscore how these global powers test one another’s thresholds.

Internal Threats: A Different Form of the Thucydides Trap?

Internally, countries can also experience destabilization as a result of growing power. India, which aspires to become a manufacturing hub, faces challenges not just from external forces but also internal strife. Movements like Shaheen Bagh protests, the farmers' movement, or the violence in Manipur could be seen as manifestations of this trap. By promoting civil unrest, hostile entities can attempt to slow down a nation’s progress and prevent it from achieving its global ambitions.

Such situations reflect the dynamics that arise when a nation's rise is seen as a threat, not only by foreign rivals but also by forces within. The risk? A potential erosion of national unity and delayed progress in crucial sectors like manufacturing and innovation.

A Strategic Approach for India

As Prime Minister Modi rightly pointed out, India's rise must be framed as a force for global welfare, not a threat. India must navigate its growing influence carefully, managing both external pressures and internal challenges. To avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap, India will need to bolster its diplomatic strategies, build alliances, and focus on economic resilience.

A key lesson from history is that power transitions can be managed, but they require strategic foresight. The examples of China and the U.S. show that competition doesn't always need to end in confrontation. Nations that successfully navigate this trap do so by balancing assertiveness with diplomacy, economic strength with military preparedness, and internal stability with external engagement.

Conclusion: A Future on the Horizon

The Thucydides Trap reminds us that rising powers like India must tread carefully, acknowledging the risks while capitalizing on their growth. The world is watching, and how India manages these dynamics will determine its place in the future global order. Will India emerge as a peaceful leader, or will it fall prey to the forces that have historically toppled other rising powers? The answer lies in strategic foresight and unwavering national unity.

As history has shown, the stakes are high—but so are the opportunities.