Can SEBI Rein in Animal Spirits? 

Alarmed by a substantial increase in turnover and the number of contracts traded in Futures and Options (F&O) at BSE and NSE—the combined turnover at these two exchanges surged more than fourfold between May 2022 and May 2024, reaching Rs 9,504 lakh crore—and viewing it as a potential threat to capital formation and economic growth in the country, SEBI and RBI have expressed their concern. 

In most markets, derivative trading volumes average 5-15x of volumes in the cash market. As against this, derivative volumes in India have already touched 400x of cash trading. The gravity of the situation can be gauged from the fact that Germany, the second in the line stood at 36x of its cash market. The Chairperson of SEBI commented that Rs 50-60 thousand crore was going away from household savings into losses in the F&O segment. It has thus become a major macroeconomic issue. 

Before going deeper into these losses and their consequences, let us first look at what these derivatives are and why rapidly growing trading in derivatives is disturbing market regulators. Derivatives are financial instruments whose promised payoffs are derived from the value of something else, generally called the underlying. The underlying could be stocks, commodities, currencies, or even indexes. They are essentially designed to hedge or contain certain risks. 

One of the derivatives is Futures. It is one of the oldest innovations in the financial world. Since the times of Aristotle, futures have become the darling of market players —hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs—as they are found to mimic the price of the underlying asset better.  better. A financial futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell a standard quantity of a specific financial instrument at a future date at a price agreed upon today between the parties through an organized futures exchange, say NSE/BSE. 

Under a futures contract, a buyer commits today to buy Reliance shares at a specified future date at a price fixed today, and the seller makes the opposite commitment.  A buyer thus acquires a long position while the seller acquires a short position. When a position is acquired, both parties are required to post an initial margin with the exchange. Thus, futures trading facilitates leverage on margin, i.e., it enables investors to take large positions with a small initial outlay of funds. If the price of the underlying moves in the unintended direction, a trader may lose more than the initial margin. Trading in futures thus can lead to either larger returns or larger losses. 

The second most actively traded derivative is the Option. The buyer of an option has the right but not the obligation to take delivery of the underlying asset. On the other hand, the seller of an option must perform the contract, should the holder/buyer of an option exercise. The buyer of an option must pay a certain fee known as option premium to the seller to enjoy the liberty of this right. 

Options are of two types: call option, which gives the right to buy the underlying asset, and put option which grants the right to sell the underlying asset at the agreed upon price. Let us take an example to understand how options operate. Say, X company’s share is priced today at Rs 500 and you expect it to increase to Rs 670 by a certain predicted date. In this scenario, you must purchase a call option with a strike price of less than Rs 670. On the expiry date, if the price of the X share is above the strike price, you will exercise the option and make a profit. On the other hand, if the market price is lower than the strike price, you will not exercise the option. The net result of letting the option lapse is the loss of the premium paid earlier to purchase the option. Option trading thus provides scope for higher returns with a lower margin (option premium). This leverage can also multiply potential losses. 

Perhaps, it is this potential for higher gains offered by the leverage that is luring retail investors towards speculative trading in derivatives. A recent study carried out by SEBI revealed that 93% of retail investors in the F&O segment made losses. The study also pointed out that it is the foreign portfolio investors and brokers trading on their proprietary books who are raking in profits owing to their deep pockets and the ability to use sophisticated algorithmic trading tools. 

Authorities conclude that trading in the F&O segment is hurting individual traders badly. Here, it is also worth recalling what Warren Buffett once said: “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”. Yet gullible investors, being unaware of embedded risks in derivatives trading and lured by brokers with promises of riches, are burning their pockets by trading in derivatives. 

Against this backdrop, SEBI constituted a 15-member working group headed by 
G Padmanabhan to “suggest near-term and medium-term measures to enhance investor protection in exchange-traded derivatives and to improve risk metrics and risk architecture of ETDs, with a view to enhance market development and regulation”. 

Accepting most of the group’s recommendations, SEBI increased the minimum contract size for index futures and index options from the current Rs 5-10 lakh to Rs 15-20 lakh and also mandated upfront collection of option premiums to reduce speculative positions. In an attempt to rationalize weekly index derivatives, it allowed exchanges to offer only one benchmark index with a weekly expiry. 

SEBI is also introducing intraday monitoring of position limits, and increased tail risk coverage to address the likelihood of losses from rare events. To address the significant trading volumes noticed on expiry days and the potential basis risks thereof, SEBI said that the benefits of offsetting positions across different expiries (calendar spreads) will not apply on expiry days. According to the SEBI circular, these measures, which are meant to protect investors and maintain market stability, will come into force in a phased manner starting November 20, 2024. 

No wonder, there would be strong opposition to these changes from exchanges and brokers for the changes are sure to impact their business adversely. It is to be seen how SEBI steers through. Secondly, one wonders if these changes can rein in investors’ animal spirits!